摘要
当前甘肃民族地区持续恶化的城乡居民收入分配状况,已引起社会各界高度重视,有效治理城乡居民收入差距问题事关民族地区社会稳定和全面小康社会建成。本文以甘南州为例,选取2000~2015年的数据,借助Eviews软件分别对城镇居民人均可支配收入和农牧民人均纯收入建立ARMA模型,并以2011~2015年的实际值进行验证,得出模型预测效果较优的结论。最后利用该模型对2016~2018年甘南州城乡收入差距实施短期动态预测,结果表明,未来三年甘南州城乡居民收入绝对差距会持续拉大而相对差距逐年缩小,接着给出了进一步治理甘南州城乡居民收入差距的对策建议。
The continued deterioration of income gap between the urban and the rural has drawn a great concern. How to effectively balance such gap is a matter related to social stability in ethnic areas and the construction of comprehensive well-off society. Taking Gannan Prefecture as an example and selecting data from 2000 to 2015, then using the Eviews software to establish the ARMA model for the per capita disposable income of urban residents and the per capita net income of peasants and herdsmen, the paper draws a conclusion that the prediction of the model is better by verifying the actual number of 2011-2015. Then the model is applied to forecast the short-term Gannan urban-rural income gap from 2016 to 2018. The results show that the absolute gap between urban and rural residents＇ income will continue to widen in Gannan Prefecture in the next three years, and the relative gap will be narrowed annually. Finally, the countermeasures to further control Gannan residents＇ income gap are given.
作者
陈兵建
卢志辉
陈鹏伟
Chen Bingjian Lu Zhihui Chen P.engwei(School of Economics and Management, Lanzhou University of Arts and Science, lanzhou Gansu 730010, China)
出处
《萍乡学院学报》
2017年第4期23-30,共8页
Journal of Pingxiang University
基金
甘肃省高等学校科研项目(2015B-137)
关键词
甘肃民族地区
城乡收入差距
ARMA模型
预测与分析
ethnic regions of Gansu province
urban and rural income gap
ARMA model
prediction andanalysis
