摘要
在全球价值链格局中,贸易摩擦所导致的单边技术管制不仅会对一国出口贸易利益形成冲击,还会对全球产业价值链和国际经济格局重塑产生重要影响。党的十九届五中全会明确提出,构建国内、国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,同时强调推动产业链与供应链多元化。本文基于贸易增加值法测算框架,分析在中美贸易摩擦历史背景下中国制造业出口的中间品进口依赖度,评估美国单边技术管制对中国制造业出口贸易利益及国内产业链的冲击程度。研究发现:中国制造业整体出口增加值中源自国外增加值部分比例在大幅下降,但计算机、电子和光学制品、电气设备等行业仍十分依赖国外中间品投入;欧洲、美国和日本是中国制造业中间品进口依赖度最高的地区,且中国出口中来源于这些地区的国外增加值占比低于流出占比。美国单边技术管制对中国出口的冲击,通过全球价值链体系在国内各行业及主要贸易伙伴之间形成差异化的“放大效应”和“吸收效应”。
In the close connection of global value chain,unilateral technical regulation in trade friction does not only impacts on the export trade benefit for one country,but also brings an important influence on the restructures of global industrial value chain and international economic map.The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee clearly put forward the construction of a“dual circulation”development pattern,while emphasizing the promotion of industrial chain and supply chain diversification.Based on the framework of trade value-added method,this paper analyzes and evaluates the impact of the import dependence of intermediate goods,and the impact of US control on the important technology intensive intermediate goods on China's manufacturing export trade and domestic industrial chain under the historical background of bilateral trade friction.The results show that the proportion of foreign value added in China's export value added is decreasing,but computer,electronic and optical products,electrical equipment and manufacturing machinery are still the sectors most dependent on foreign intermediate inputs.Europe,the United States and Japan are regions with the highest implied value added from China's exports.The foreign value added of China's exports from these regions was lower than that flowing to them.The impact of US Technology Export Control on China's export trade interests has“amplification effect”and“absorption effect”in both of industries and regions,and the impact of the same proportion of technical controls on exports weakens over time in the long-run.
作者
李真
李茂林
陈天明
Li Zhen;Li Maolin;Chen Tianming
出处
《财经科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第6期67-80,共14页
Finance & Economics
基金
上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题“金融偏向性与上海先进制造业创新竞争力的内生耦合及协同发展对策研究”(2018BJL007)。
关键词
技术出口管制
贸易摩擦
中间品依赖
出口贸易
Hi-Tech Export Control
Trade Friction
Intermediate Goods Dependence
Export
