摘要
人口迁移是区域人口数量变化的主要原因,通过对人类迁移行为的研究,可为公共设施的选址、惠民政策以及交通布网等提供参考,是关乎社会民生的重要课题.本文对美国170个城市2012—2017年的人口规模(L)和国内生产总值(GDP)数据进行统计分析,获得其概率分布分别满足高斯和指数关系.为揭示分布规律形成机制,预测人口与经济发展趋势,以追求高经济利益为驱动力,以两地心理距离为阻力,构建合力作用下的人口迁移动力学模型.模拟结果表明,区域间人口迁移导致人口分布由初始的随机分布经类高斯分布最终稳定于指数分布,而区域经济发展水平(GDP)满足指数分布.另外,模型借助复杂网络思想,将参与人口迁移行为的区域视为网络节点,以迁移网络图展现人口迁移行为演化过程.在此基础上,以网络连接度分布和人口结构信息熵来定量理解人口迁移行为时空特征形成物理机制.
It is a major cause of regional population changes for population migration.Quantitative analysis of human migration is becoming an important subject of the people’s livelihood,which can be used as a reference for the location selection of public facilities,the policy of benefiting the people and the distribution of transportation network.A statistical analysis on the population and GDPs of 170 cities in the United States from 2012 to 2017 is conducted.The result indicates probability distribution of the populations obeying the Gaussian and that of the GDP existing the exponential relation.In order to reveal the mechanism that creates the aforementioned distributions,forecast the trends of demographic and economic,a dynamic model is proposed based on the population migration rule that migration is facilitated by higher financial gains and abated by the migratory psychological distance.The calculated results indicate that the distribution of the populations is changed from initial random demographic to exponential distribution through Gaussian-Like distribution and that the distribution of GDPs is governed by exponent.Additionally,the process of human migration is modeling with the network formed by active nodes,representing the immigration and emigration regions.On this foundation,the mechanism on temporal and spatial migration of human is quantitatively understood through the degree distribution of the network and information entropy of population structure.
作者
张胜利
霍杰
王旭明
Zhang Shengli;Huo Jie;Wang Xuming(School of Physics and Electronic-Electrical Engineering,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China;Ningxia Key Laboratory of Intelligent Sensing for Desert Information,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China)
出处
《宁夏大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2021年第2期148-154,共7页
Journal of Ningxia University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(11665018)。
关键词
人口迁移
动力学模拟
概率分布
预测
population migration
dynamics model
probability distribution
prediction
