摘要
文章利用层次分析法讨论了我国省域人口迁移和经济增长的变动规律,在此基础上,从系统耦合观视角实证检验了人口迁移与经济增长两系统之间的协调关系之特征,并对二者耦合程度的演化规律做出了理论解析。结果发现,我国各省区人口迁移与经济增长都存在稳定的正向协调演进机制,但总体看二者的耦合度并不高,且区域间存在较大差异,从空间上表现出由东至西依次递减态势;同时,还表现出人口迁移与经济增长之间存在一定的适宜性特征。此外,各区域都存在耦合衰退趋势,这意味着,随着我国经济发展方式转型的不断深入,经济增长与人口迁移将出现逆向变动趋势,未来由高素质人力资本迁移带动的经济增长特征将愈发明显。
By employing the analytic hierarchy process method, this paper analyzes changing pat- tern of population migration and economic growth across China＇ s provinces, and further assesses their coordination characteristics in a coupling perspective. Results show that, at the country, region and province levels, stable coupling coordination mechanisms exist between population migration and eco- nomic growth, but the coupling levels are not high, which are decreasing from East to West. Mean- while, there appears to be some appropriateness between migration and economic growth. However, coupling levels are declining at all regions, which means that, with the advancing transformation of de- velopment pattern, economic growth will be increasingly driven by migration of high - quality human capital labour.
出处
《人口研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第6期40-56,共17页
Population Research
关键词
省域人口迁移
经济增长
耦合
Inter - privincial Migration, Economic Growth, Coupling
