摘要
为了准确地预测规划区域建筑时间和空间上负荷动态特性,本文回顾了区域冷热负荷预测方法研究进展,梳理了区域建筑负荷的典型影响因素,比较了各种负荷预测方法的优缺点,重点剖析了基于Bayesian理论回归统计负荷预测模型、负荷因子法模型和BP网络神经模型的构建过程。针对不同规划阶段能源规划方案,开展了区域负荷预测方法适用性分析。
To accurately predict load dynamic characteristics of urban districts in space and time,the paper review research process of cooling and heating load prediction during urban districts,conclude typical influence factors of building load during urban districts,compare advantages and disadvantages of various load predication methods,emphasis analysis construction process of the load prediction regression statistics model basising on bayesian theory、the hourly load factor method and BP neural network model.Aiming at different energy planning schemes during urban planning stage,develop the applicability analysis of methods load prediction during urban planning.
作者
路作龙
安爽
杨文晓
肖敏
赵辰朝
Lu Zuolong;An Shuang;Yang Wenxiao;Xiao Min;Zhao Chenzhao(Beijing Urban Planning Technology Service Center)
出处
《区域供热》
2021年第3期37-44,共8页
District Heating
