摘要
基于2000—2017年山东省时间序列数据,运用向量自回归模型(VAR)分析了农业经济增长与农业投入要素之间的动态关联。研究表明:(1)农业劳动力投入量的增加,对农业经济增长产生了动态促进作用,但是其影响程度逐渐减弱;(2)长期来看,农业机械总动力的增加,对农业经济增长产生了促进作用但存在滞后效应;(3)涉农领域的固定资产投入增加存在滞后效应,但是长期来看对农业经济增长产生了促进作用。
This paper establishes a vector autoregressive model(VAR)to explore the dynamic relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural input factors,using time series data of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2017.The conclusions are as follows:(1)the increase of agricultural labor input has a dynamic promoting effect on agricultural economic growth,but its influence is gradually weakened.(2)in the long run,the increase of the total power of agricultural machinery has a promoting effect on agricultural economic growth,but there is a lagging effect.(3)the increase of fixed assets investment in agriculture-related fields has a lagging effect,but it has a long-term promoting effect on agricultural economic growth.
作者
高秀
刘从九
张鹏程
GAO Xiu;LIU Congjiu;ZHANG Pengcheng(China Cooperative Research Institute,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233041,China;Rural Economic Management Office,Linyi Agricultural Bureau,Linyi 276000,China)
出处
《云南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2021年第4期42-50,共9页
Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University(Social Science)
基金
安徽财经大学合作经济研究中心项目“农业要素与农业经济增长研究”(ACHZZX202106)
安徽省高校人文社科重点项目“基于农户技术选择视角的农业面源污染控制政策研究”(SK2019A0498)。
关键词
农业经济增长
农民专业合作社
农业劳动力
时滞效应
VAR模型
agricultural economic growth
farmers’professional cooperatives
agricultural labor force
time lag effect
VAR model
