摘要
通过调查云南池坝塘精养渔业分析养殖渔业经济效益,得出结论:(1)多因子回归分析显示,净利润在5%的显著性水平下,显著与养殖总成本及边际贡献率相关,R^(2)约为0.77。保持其他变量恒定时,边际贡献率每增加1%,净利润增加1830元/hm^(2)。单因子回归分析时,总产值在5%的显著性水平下,显著与养殖总成本相关,R^(2)约为0.87,相关系数为0.93。保持其他变量恒定,养殖总成本增加15元/hm^(2),总产值增加23.55元/hm^(2)。边际贡献率大于36.5%时,养殖渔业净利润大于0。(2)渔业水环境、销售价格及饲料成本是影响养殖渔业经济效益的主要因子。(3)经营安全率分析显示,在2020年疫情影响的价格水平下,养殖渔业有较高的风险性。
This article investigated and analyzed the economic benefits of intensive fishery ponds and dams in Yunnan.The following conclusions are obtained:(1)Multi-factor regression analysis shows at the 5%significance level,the net profit is significantly related to the total cost of aquaculture and the marginal contribution rate.The R-square is about 0.77.When other variables are kept constant,for every 1%increase in the marginal contribution rate,the net profit increases by 1830 yuan/hm^(2).In the single factor regression analysis,the total output value,at the 5%significance level,is significantly related to the total cost of breeding.The R-square is about 0.87 and the correlation coefficient is 0.93.Keeping other variables constant,the total cost of aquaculture increases by 15 yuan/hm^(2),and the total output value increases by 23.55 yuan/hm^(2).When the marginal contribution rate is greater than 36.5%,the net profit of aquaculture fishery is greater than 0.(2)Fishery water environment,sales price and feed cost are the main factors that affect the economic benefits of aquaculture fishery.(3)Analysis of operating safety rate shows that,given the price level affected by the pandemic in 2020,aquaculture fisheries have a high risk.
作者
杨群兴
刘从信
李光华
彭云东
YANG Qunxing;LIU Congxin;LI Guanghua;PENG Yundong(Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine,Yunnan Vocational and Technical College of Agriculture,Kunming 650031,China;Pu’er Fisheries Development Center,Pu’er 665000,China;Yunnan Academy of Fishery Sciences,Kunming 650111,China;Yunnan Zhonghai Fisheries Co.,Ltd,Kunming 650206,China)
出处
《云南农业大学学报(社会科学版)》
2022年第2期111-119,共9页
Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University(Social Science)
关键词
池坝塘
养殖渔业
净利润
边际贡献率
经营安全率
ponds and dams
aquaculture fisheries
net profit
marginal contribution rate
operating safety rate