摘要
气候变化影响植物物种地理分布,研究不同气候情景下物种的地理分布有助于物种保护和资源合理利用。为准确了解西藏沙棘(Hippophae thibetana)种植适宜生境,本研究收集了118个西藏沙棘种群分布点、19个气候因子和3个地形因子数据,利用MaxEnt(最大熵)模型和ArcGIS软件平台模拟了当前气候情景下西藏沙棘的适宜生境,探讨影响其生长的主导因子及阈值,并对其在4种不同气候情景下2041-2060年和2061-2080年的适宜生境进行预测。结果表明:(1)当前西藏沙棘高适宜生境和适宜生境面积分别为33.32万km^(2)和51.65万km^(2),主要分布于青藏高原,集中在西藏、四川、青海和甘肃;(2)影响西藏沙棘地理分布的主导因子是海拔、最湿季降水量、最冷季平均温度,其中各因子的适宜生长阈值分别为:海拔2500-4800 m,最湿季降水量200-420 mm,最冷季平均温度-12-0℃;(3)未来不同气候情景下,西藏沙棘的高适宜生境、适宜生境和低适宜生境面积均出现缩减。该研究有助于西藏沙棘的野生资源保护、开发利用和扩大种植。
Climate change affects the geographical distribution of species.Studying the geographical distribution of species under different climate scenarios is helpful to the species conservation and rational utilization of plant resources.In order to accurately understand the suitable habitat of Hippophae thibetana in China,based on 118 records of species occurrence data,19 climate and 3 terrain factors,with the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software,this research simulated the suitable habitat of H.thibetana under current climate conditions,explored the dominant factors affecting its growth and their thresholds,and examined future distribution under different climate change scenarios(i.e.,RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5)in 2040-2060 and 2060-2080,respectively.The results show that:(1)Under current climate conditions,the area of high suitable habitat is 33.32×10^(4) km^(2) and the area of suitable habitat is 51.65×10^(4) km^(2).They are mainly located in Himalayas and Qilian Mountains of the Tibetan Plateau,concentrated in Tibet,Gansu,Qinghai,Sichuan provinces.(2)The most significant factors affecting the distribution of H.thibetana are elevation,precipitation of the driest quarter,mean temperature of coldest quarter.The suitable elevation is 2500-4800 m.The suitable precipitation of the driest season ranges from 200 mm to 420 mm.The suitable mean temperature of coldest season ranges from-12℃to 0℃.(3)Under different climate change scenarios in the future,the area of unsuitable habitat would significantly increase,while the others would reduce.This results may be useful for the protection,development and plantation of H.thibetana.
作者
贺晓慧
司建华
赵春彦
王春林
周冬蒙
He Xiaohui;Si Jianhua;Zhao Chunyan;Wang Chunlin;Zhou Dongmeng(Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydrology of Inland River Basin,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;College of Resources and Environment,Baotou Teachers’College,Baotou 014030,Inner Mongolia,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《中国沙漠》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第3期101-109,共9页
Journal of Desert Research
基金
中国科学院创新交叉团队项目(JCTD-2019-19)
内蒙古自治区高等学校科学技术研究项目(NJZY21034)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42001038)。
