摘要
基于云南沙棘在中国的78个种群分布点位数据与22个地理环境变量,利用MaxEnt模型模拟了云南沙棘在当前气候与未来(2050S、2070S)3种不同气候情景(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)的潜在地理分布,探讨影响云南沙棘分布的主导环境变量,揭示未来气候变化下云南沙棘的变化趋势。结果表明:(1)影响云南沙棘生长的主要环境变量为热量(温度季节性变动系数、等温性、最冷季平均温度)、地形(海拔、坡度)和水文(年降水量),其中海拔、年降水量及温度季节性变动系数对其影响极其显著,累计贡献率为60%;(2)当前气候情景下,云南沙棘的高适宜生境与适宜生境面积分别为5.88×10^(4)km^(2)和23.97×10^(4)km^(2),分别占中国国土面积的0.61%与2.49%,适宜种植生境集中分布在我国横断山脉地区;(3)2041—2060年间3种不同气候情景下云南沙棘适宜生境和高适宜生境面积为增长趋势,在2061—2080年间RCP8.5情景下云南沙棘的高适宜生境为减小趋势,适宜生境呈现增加趋势。云南沙棘适宜生境有向西南方向逐渐扩张趋势。
Based on the data of seventy eight population distribution points and 22 geographic environmental variables of Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. yunnanensis in China, this paper discussed the potential geographic distribution of Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. yunnanensis in three different climate scenarios(RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) under current and future(2050 S and 2070 S) by using MaxEnt model, explored the dominant environmental variables affecting the distribution of Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. yunnanensis,and revealed the trends of Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. yunnanensis under future climate change. The results showed as the following three parts.(1) The main environmental variables affecting the growth of Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. yunnanensis were heat(temperature seasonal variation coefficient, isothermality, mean temperature of the coldest season), topography(elevation, slope) and hydrology(annual precipitation), of which elevation, annual precipitation and temperature seasonal variation coefficient had extremely significant effects with a cumulative contribution of 60%.(2) Under the current climatic scenario, the area of high suitable habitatand suitable habitat of Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. yunnanensis were 5.88×10^(4)km^(2) and 23.97×10^(4)km^(2), accounting for 0.61% and 2.49% of China’s land area, respectively, and the suitable planting habitats were concentrated in the Hengduan Mountain Range area of China.(3) During 2041-2060, the area of suitable habitat and highly suitable habitat of Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. yunnanensis under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios showed an increasing trend, and the highly suitable habitat of Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. yunnanensis under RCP8.5 scenario showed a decreasing trend and suitable habitat showed an increasing trend during 2061-2080. The suitable habitat of Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. yunnanensisshowed a trend of gradual expansion toward southwestern direction.
作者
谢婧妍
贺晓慧
朱丽
郝瑞敏
Xie Jingyan;He Xiaohui;Zhu Li;Hao Ruimin(Resource and Environmental Engineering College,Baotou Teachers’College,Baotou 014030,China;Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin,Northwest Institute of Ecological Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《防护林科技》
2023年第1期24-29,共6页
Protection Forest Science and Technology
基金
内蒙古自治区高等学校科学技术研究项目(NJZY21034)
内蒙古自治区大学生创新训练项目(202010131012)。
关键词
云南沙棘
气候变化
地理分布
MAXENT
Hippophae rhamnoides subsp.yunnanensis
climate change
geographical distribution
MaxEnt
