摘要
为明确外来入侵植物刺果瓜Sicyos angulatus在我国的潜在地理分布,基于MaxEnt模型、ArcGIS软件及全球分布数据,在历史气候条件及未来气候条件下(低强迫情景SSP126和高强迫情景SSP585)预测刺果瓜在中国的潜在地理分布。结果显示,MaxEnt模型的曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)值为0.977,表明模型具有较高的可靠性;气温季节性变化、最热月的最高温、最干月降水量和最湿季节的降水量是影响刺果瓜在中国潜在地理分布的4个关键环境变量;历史气候条件下刺果瓜主要发生在中国东部、中部和西部,适生区总面积占中国陆地总面积的23.29%;未来气候条件下,刺果瓜在中国的适生区范围有所减少,SSP126和SSP585情景下刺果瓜在中国的适生区总面积分别为186.10×10^(4)km^(2)和162.68×10^(4)km^(2),分别占中国陆地总面积的19.35%和16.91%,但还是主要覆盖黄淮海平原夏播玉米区和南方丘陵玉米区等产区,质心由南向北移动。
This study was carried based on MaxEnt model,ArcGIS software and global distribution data to predict the potential geographical distribution of bur cucumber Sicyos angulatus,an alien invasive plant,under the current and two future climate scenarios(including low forcing scenario SSP126 and high forcing scenario SSP585).The results showed that the average area under curve(AUC)of MaxEnt model is 0.977,suggesting the prediction results highly reliable.Temperature seasonality,the max tem‐perature of the warmest month,the total precipitation of the driest month,the total precipitation of the wettest quarter are the four key environmental variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of the S.angulatus.Under the historical conditions,the potential geographical distribution of the S.an‐gulatus mainly occurrs in the eastern,central and western regions in China,and the total area of suitable areas accounts for 23.29%of the total land area of China.Under the future climate scenarios,the range of suitable areas for S.angulatus would reduce.Under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios,the total area of the suitable area of S.angulatus in China is 186.10×10^(4)km^(2),162.68×10^(4)km^(2),accounting for 19.35%and 16.91%of the total land area of China,respectively,it would mainly cover Huang-Huai-Hai Plain summer-maize region and the southern China hilly maize region,and the centroid would move from south to north.
作者
徐艳玲
秦誉嘉
张源
张岳
付卫东
张国良
李志红
赵紫华
Xu Yanling;Qin Yujia;Zhang Yuan;Zhang Yue;Fu Weidong;Zhang Guoliang;Li Zhihong;Zhao Zihua(Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Department of Plant Biosecurity,College of Plant Protection,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《植物保护学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第5期1440-1449,共10页
Journal of Plant Protection
基金
国家重点研发计划(2021YFC2600401)
财政部和农业农村部国家现代农业产业技术体系(CARS-02)。
关键词
刺果瓜
MaxEnt模型
气候变化
潜在地理分布
Sicyos angulatus
MaxEnt model
climate change
potential geographical distribution
