摘要
我国经济飞速发展推动民航飞行流量跳跃式增长,对管制系统安全目标水平提出了更高的要求,如何控制管制系统运行风险成为研究重点。针对这一目标,提出了管制系统的风险控制系统概念,引入折叠突变模型,通过分析管制系统风险事故统计数据确定系统突变特征及人、机、环、管4种因素耦合风险对系统状态的影响程度;基于Van der PolDuffing方程,应用多尺度法对耦合风险分岔导致折叠突变的影响参数进行研究,设计管制系统内部阻尼调节系数和外部影响因素幅值系数两个风险控制器,确定风险控制要素。结果表明:人为因素耦合风险对管制系统的影响程度最大;设计的风险控制器具有可行性,能够抑制折叠突变发生,保证管制系统处于稳定状态。
The paper is aimed at tracing and examining the previous risk accidents to find the general mechanism of the accident evolutionary accumulation and resultant based on the case study of the typical accidents.As is well known,the fast economic development in China has been giving promotional force to the leapforward growth of the civil aviation flight communications.It has also brought about unprecedented great demands for the air-traffic and transportation safety of the control system both at home and abroad.And,so,aiming at such a glorious goal,the given paper has brought about a proposal of the risk control system of the air traffic control.The above said control system can be divided into3 sections and 4 executive units:that is,those for evaluation,the control and the 4 factors,which are likely to be disturbed by the said factors at the same time.The folded catastrophe model has then been introduced with the catastrophe features of the system by analyzing the statistical data of the risk accidents concerned.And,the disturbance can be classified as the risk factors,whereas the bifurcation should be categorized into catastrophe generation,with the influence degree of the 4 factors of manmachine loop on the risk state of the system being explored in the catastrophe fluid.And,then,using the Van der Pol-Duffing equation in catastrophe theory and multi-scale method to eliminate the time delay,we can study and confirm the influential parameters of the folding catastrophe caused by the risk bifurcation,At the same time,the 2 risk controllers,internal damping adjustment coefficient and the external influence factor amplitude coefficient,can help to determine the elements for realization of the risk control of the control system.For the above said features,the above model can help to explain the risk generation in the control system and the ways of risk control.The results show that human factors have the greatest influence on the risk status of the control system.The designed risk controller is feasible,which can help t
作者
张兆宁
董环环
ZHANG Zhao-ning;DONG Huan-huan(College of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第2期707-713,共7页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
天津市自然科学基金项目(18JCQNJC04300)。
