摘要
江苏省是我国经济大省也是能源消费大省,导致碳减排和环境压力较大。基于1996〜2019年的统计数据,在通过2阶稳定性检验后,江苏省能源消费是经济增长的格兰杰原因,经济增长是能源消费的格兰杰原因,即两者存在双向格兰杰原因。江苏省经济增长与能源消费存在双向长期回归关系,即能源消费每增加一个单位,则引起1.4个单位经济增长;经济增长每增加一个单位,则引起0.683个单位新增能源消费。总体上能源消费推动经济增长贡献大于经济增长的回弹效应。坚持能源消费总量和能源强度的“双控”,调整产业时,使用非化石能源替代化石能源,调整能源品种等时需要关注经济增长与能源消费长期关系降低相关政策效果。
Jiangsu province is not only a big economic province in China,but also a big energy consumption province,which causes great pressure on carbon emission reduction and environment.Based on the statistical data from 1996 to 2019,after passing through 2 order stability test,energy consumption in Jiangsu province is a granger cause of economic growth,and economic growth is the granger cause of energy consumption,namely there is two-way granger reason between economic growth and energy consumption.There is a two-way long-term regression relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in Jiangsu province.Each unit of energy consumption increase will lead to 1.4 units of economic growth;each unit of economic growth increase will lead to 0.683 units of new energy consumption.On the whole,the contribution of energy consumption to economic growth is greater than the rebound effect of economic growth.When the dual control of total energy consumption and energy intensity,non-fossil energy to replace fossil energy during adjustment of industrial structure and adjustment of energy varieties are carried out,it needs to pay attention to the long-term relationship between economic growth and energy consumption to reduce the effect of the above policies.
出处
《中国能源》
2021年第4期75-79,共5页
Energy of China
基金
江苏高校哲学社会科学一般研究项目“江苏省能源消耗总量和能源强度‘双控’的影响因素及政策研究”(编号:2020SJA0156)
2020年度江苏省社科应用研究精品工程课题“江苏建立能源碳排放与经济发展相互促进机制研究”(编号:20SYB-104)
江苏省大学生创新训练项目“基于2030年碳减排目标下的高耗能产业碳减排策略研究”(编号:2020NFUSPITP0660)。
关键词
能源消费
经济增长
长期回归关系
Energy Consumption
Economic Growth
Long-term Regression Relationship
