摘要
基于重庆市1997-2016年的统计数据,在稳定性检验与协整分析基础上,通过格兰杰因果关系检验以及脉冲响应和方差分解方法,分析重庆市能源消费与经济增长关系,得出如下结论:重庆市能源消费是GDP的格兰杰原因,但GDP并不是能源消费的格兰杰原因;重庆市能源消费对经济增长的影响在逐步增大;重庆市能源消费对经济增长的方差分解时间路径不断增长,即能源消耗发展对经济增长的贡献在后期比较稳定,并提出相应对策建议:做好能源消费规划,科学有计划地开发能源资源;加强全民节能教育,营造节约用能氛围;加快产业转型升级,严格控制高耗能产业发展。
Based on the statistical data of Chongqing from 1997 to 2016,the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Chongqing is analyzed through Granger causality test and impulse response and variance decomposition methods,based on the stability test and cointegration analysis. The following conclusions were drawn: Energy consumption is the Granger cause of GDP,but GDP is not the Granger cause of energy consumption of Chongqing. The impact energy consumption on economic growth is gradually increasing in Chongqing. The time path of variance of energy consumption in Chongqing is growing, that is, the contribution of energy consumption development to economic growth is relatively stable in the later period. The corresponding countermeasures were proposed: Do a good job in energy consumption planning, plan and scientifically develop energy resources;strengthen energy conservation education for all and create a climate of energy conservation;accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading,and strictly control the development of high energy-consuming industries.
作者
胡小渝
HU Xiaoyu(Party School of Shapingba District Com mi ttee , Chongqing 400033 , China;Chongqing Technology and Business University , Chongqing 400067 , China)
出处
《重庆理工大学学报（自然科学）》
CAS
北大核心
2019年第9期196-203,共8页
Journal of Chongqing University of Technology：Natural Science
基金
国家社科基金重大项目“我国分省经济发展方式转变与产业、人口、教育、就业和迁移政策仿真模型及技术支撑平台构建研究”(13&ZD156)
关键词
能源消费
经济增长
协整分析
energy consumption
economic growth
cointegration analysis
