摘要
水资源是京、津、冀区域发展的最大短板,农业用水所占比例虽然持续降低,但2018年仍占用水总量的54.1%,评价农业水足迹生产和消费协调度状况对提高水资源承载力有一定意义。基于京、津、冀农业灌溉用水、气象、作物产量等数据,核算并分析作物水足迹的生产和消费时间变化特征,构建水足迹生产和消费协调度评价模型,基于系统动力学模型模拟农业水资源承载力变化。结果表明:京、津、冀作物虚拟水含量在2000—2015年间年际变化整体呈下降趋势;北京、天津、河北的农业水足迹生产和消费协调度年际变化整体呈上升趋势,用系统动力学模型模拟时,入渗系数上调10%为0.77,灌溉水利用系数取北京市的值0.732,在区域蓝水消耗不增加的状况下,2015年,京、津、冀的小麦、玉米、蔬菜模拟产量分别比实际产量增加43.3万、50.1万、237.2万t,其他作物的模拟产量都可以获得不同程度的提高。
Water resources are the biggest short board of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional development.Although the proportion of agricultural water use continues to decrease,it still occupied 54.1%of the total water in 2018.Evaluating the production-consumption coordination degree of agricultural water footprint is of certain significance to improve the carrying capacity of regional water resources.Based on agricultural irrigation water,meteorological and crop yield data,we calculated and analyzed the time variation characteristics of crop production and consumption,constructed the evaluation model of water footprint production-consumption coordination degree,and simulated the change of agricultural water resources carrying capacity based on system dynamics.Results show that:the virtual water of crops decreased significantly from 2000 to 2015;the production-consumption coordination degree of agricultural water footprint in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region showed an upward trend.In the system dynamics simulation,the infiltration coefficient assumed to increase to 0.77,and the irrigation water utilization coefficient was assumed to be 0.732,under the condition of no increase of regional blue water consumption,the yields of wheat,corn and vegetables in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region increased respectively by 43.3×104 t,50.1×104 t and 237.2×104 t compared with the actual production data,and the yield of other crops increased in some extent.
作者
黄会平
王如厂
李新生
贾冬冬
韩宇平
HUANG Huiping;WANG Ruchang;LI Xinsheng;JIA Dongdong;HAN Yuping(North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Tianshui Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Yellow River Water Resources Commission,Tianshui 741020,China)
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》
北大核心
2021年第2期66-75,共10页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51709167,51679089,52009043)
河南省2021年度重点研发与推广专项(212102310375)。
关键词
京、津、冀
农业水足迹
生产和消费协调度评价
系统动力学
水资源承载力
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
agricultural water footprint
production and consumption coordination degree evaluation
system dynamics
water resources carrying capacity
