摘要
目的采用多种方法对我国2035年公共卫生人员需求进行测算。方法采用公共卫生服务需求法、目标人群法和人口比值法对我国公共卫生人员需求进行测算。结果预测2035年我国公共卫生人员的需求为12.96~17.40人/万人口。结论趋势预测法无法预测我国公共卫生人员需求,本研究的缺陷在于未从全人群全生命周期角度进行测算。
Objective:The demand of public health personnel in 2035 in China was estimated by various methods.Method:The methods of public health service demand,target population and population ratio were used to estimate the demand of public health personnel in China.Result:It is predicted that the demand of public health workers in China in 2035 will be 12.96~17.40 per 10,000 population.Conclusion:While the trend prediction method cannot predict the demand of public health workers in China.The defect of this study is that it does not measure the demand from the perspective of the whole population and the whole life cycle.
作者
姚德明
党媛
武宁
YAO De-ming;DANG Yuan;WU Ning(Beijing Hospital/National Center of Gerontology/Institute of Geriatrics Medicine,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences,Beijing 100730,China;School of Public Health,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100069,China;China National Health Development Research Center,Beijing 100044,China)
出处
《现代医院管理》
2021年第2期60-63,共4页
Modern Hospital Management
关键词
公共卫生人员需求
公共卫生服务需求法
目标人群法
人口比值法
public health personnel demand
public health service demand method
target population method
population ratio method
