摘要
经历了多年的探索和实践,货币政策预期管理的经验需要进行总结和推广。本文运用事件研究法和回归分析定量测度了货币政策预期管理的市场效应,特别是预期管理相关事件对货币市场主体产生的信号效应。通过研究,本文发现货币政策预期管理能够有效影响货币市场主体的行为选择,从而对货币市场利率产生即时和相对长期的显著、持续性影响,表明预期管理不仅能够辅助货币政策的利率传导,而且也能够直接通过资产价格影响实体经济。在未来的宏观调控体系框架中,决策者应当借鉴货币政策预期管理的成熟经验,在管理途径、语言表达、时空设计和事后追踪反馈等方面完善预期管理体系,并拓展至财政政策调控体系。
After years of exploration and practice,the experience of monetary policy expectation management needs to be summarized and promoted.This paper uses the event study method and regression analysis to quantitatively measure the market effect of monetary policy expectation management,especially the signal effect of time events related to expectation management on the main body of money market.Through the research,this paper finds that the expectation management of monetary policy can effectively affect the behavior choice of the main body of the money market,and thus has a significant and sustained impact on the interest rate of the money market in the immediate and relatively long term,indicating that the expectation management can not only assist the interest rate transmission of monetary policy,but also directly affect the real economy through asset prices.In the framework of the future macro-control system,policy makers should copy the mature experience of monetary policy expectation management,improve the expectation management system in the aspects of management approach,space-time design,language expression and post-tracking feedback,and expand to the fiscal policy regulation system.
作者
李志刚
李雯宁
徐德财
Li Zhigang;Li Wenning;Xu Decai
出处
《企业经济》
北大核心
2021年第4期134-143,共10页
Enterprise Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“企业债务违约的生成机理”(项目编号:71903065)
中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目“企业债务违约的形成机理”(项目编号:2019T120230)
中国博士后科学基金一等项目“理性过度投资:度量、动因与后果”(项目编号:2019M660068)
吉林省社会科学基金项目“吉林省农村金融支持乡村振兴的对策研究”(项目编号:2019C17)
吉林省省校共建计划专项资金“吉林省农村金融改革试验的科学决策与效果评价”(项目编号:502041)。
关键词
货币政策
预期管理
货币市场
信号效应
monetary policy
expectation management
money market
signal effect
