摘要
2013年我国开始启用非常规货币政策以调节经济,改善经济问题。文章借鉴传统货币政策的分析框架,从非常规货币政策目标、传导机制出发,构建一个非常规货币政策的最优分析规则模型,从理论角度解释了非常规货币政策的作用机理及政策效果。基于我国2013年1月至2018年12月的经济数据,采用FAVAR以及QVAR模型实证检验了非常规货币政策效果及对资产价格的影响。研究发现我国的非常规货币政策在传统货币政策基础上有边际效应,在短期内可以起到改善经济结构、稳定物价等目标,但长期来看其作用疲软、效果乏力;此外,非常规货币政策还会对资产价格产生影响。虽然非常规货币政策能够带来边际作用,帮助改善经济,补充政策工具调整空间,但会影响资产价格剧烈变动,为市场带来不确定性,不可过度依赖该政策。中长期来看,政府应坚持以推进供给侧结构性改革、实施积极的财政政策为主,辅以稳健的货币政策,进而更好地调整经济结构,激发经济活力。
In 2013,China began to launch unconventional monetary policy to regulate the economy and deal with economic problems. Based on the analysis framework of traditional monetary policy,this paper constructs an optimal analysis rule model of unconventional monetary policy from the target and transmission mechanism of unconventional monetary policy,and explains the mechanism and effect of unconventional monetary policy theoretically. Using China’s economic data from January 2013 to December 2018,this paper empirically tests the policy effects of unconventional monetary policy and its impact on asset price with the help of FAVAR model and Qual VAR model. The study found that China’s unconventional monetary policy has marginal effect on the basis of traditional monetary policy,which can improve the economic structure and stabilize prices in the short term,but its effect is weak in the long term. In addition,unconventional monetary policy will also have an impact on asset prices. Although unconventional monetary policy can bring marginal effect,help improve the economy and supplement the adjustment space of policy tools,it will affect the drastic changes of asset prices and bring uncertainty to the market. Therefore,we should not rely on this policy excessively. In the medium and long term,the government should adhere to promoting the supply side structural reform,implementing positive fiscal policies,supplemented by sound monetary policies,so as to better adjust the economic structure and stimulate economic vitality.
作者
陈梦涛
王维安
CHEN Men-tao;WANG Wei-an(School of Economics,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310017,China;Institute of Finance Research,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310017,China)
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第8期1-16,共16页
East China Economic Management
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“货币与信贷分离的生成机制与政策内涵研究”(19BJL093)。
关键词
非常规货币政策
有效性
政策效果
结构性货币政策
unconventional monetary policy
effectiveness
policy effect
structural monetary policy
