摘要
为了抵御新冠肺炎疫情带来的经济社会冲击,我国政府出台了新一轮的积极财政政策,但本轮积极财政政策是在财政风险已经处于高位运行状态下出台的。收支差距扩大、债务规模扩张、经济增长失速、市场制度扭曲等财政风险内外来源实际上限定了积极财政政策可能的赤字扩张边界。新一轮积极财政政策应严格遵循风险审慎原则,在实施扩张性财政政策的同时,密切关注潜在的财政风险走势,防止财政风险超越临界点。为了有效实现积极财政政策的预期目标,建议从风险治理的角度出发,分析和厘清财政风险的内生和外生来源,精准施策、共防共治。通过完善税制、深化预算绩效改革、清理地方政府隐性债务、保障民生就业等方式来化解财政风险的内生来源;通过采取扩大"新基建"投资、推动要素市场化制度改革等方式化解财政风险的外生来源,最终促进财政风险回归正常水平。
In order to withstand the economic and social impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic,the Chinese government has introduced a new round of proactive fiscal policies. However,this round of positive fiscal policy is issued under the condition that the financial risk has been at a high level. The internal and external sources of fiscal risk include the widening of income and expenditure gap,the expansion of debt scale,the slowdown of economic growth,and the distortion of market system actually limit the possible deficit expansion boundary of proactive fiscal policy. The new round of proactive fiscal policy should strictly follow the principle of risk prudence. In the implementation of expansionary fiscal policy,close attention should be paid to the trend of potential fiscal risk to prevent fiscal risk from exceeding the critical point. In order to effectively achieve the expected goal of active fiscal policy,it is suggested to analyze and clarify the endogenous and exogenous sources of fiscal risk from the perspective of risk governance. The general principle is to implement precise policies,joint prevention and governance. The endogenous sources of fiscal risks can be resolved by improving the tax system,further budget performance reforms,clearing local hidden debts,and ensuring people’s livelihood and employment. The exogenous sources of fiscal risks can be resolved by adopting measures such as expanding investment in "new infrastructure"and promoting the system reform of the factor marketization to ultimately promote the return of fiscal risks to normal levels.
作者
于海峰
葛立宇
YU Hai-feng;GE Li-yu(Guangdong University of Finance and Economics,Guangzhou 510320,China)
出处
《广东财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第1期4-14,共11页
Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71973033)
2019年度广东省重点学科科研项目(2019-GDXK-0001)。
关键词
公共风险
财政风险
积极财政政策
疫情冲击
财政扩张
财政收入
财政支出
债务
public risk
fiscal risk
proactive fiscal policy
epidemic impact
fiscal expansion
fiscal revenue
fiscal expenditure
debt
