摘要
学术界就财政支出与银行信贷如何影响经济增长这一问题一直未能达成共识。本文将2008年汶川大地震作为研究窗口,在财政支出和银行信贷由于震后出台的行政命令与政策外生化的研究前提下,综合使用合成控制法(SCM)、系统广义矩估计(System GMM)、回归控制法(RCM)、交叉滞后模型(Cross-lagged Panel Model)等方法,检验了地震后财政支出、银行信贷和经济增长的具体变化以及相互作用方向。研究发现:尽管汶川地震后财政支出和银行信贷显著增加,促进了经济增长,但由于震后四川省的直接经济损失较大,最终四川省在短期内GDP明显减少。这一发现明确了财政支出、银行信贷以及经济增长之间的因果关系与作用方向:首先,在中国,财政支出与经济增长之间的因果关系符合"凯恩斯假设",即财政支出的增加"因果性地"决定了GDP的增长。其次,增加银行信贷能够"因果性地"促进GDP增长。最后,财政支出增加促进了银行信贷的扩张,而非公共投资"挤出"了私人投资。
There has been no consensus on how public expenditure and bank credit affect economic growth.This paper took the Wenchuan earthquake on May 12,2008 as a research window,and clarified that public expenditure and bank credit had quickly become exogenous variables due to post-earthquake administrative orders and policy combinations.Then the paper used synthetic control method,system GMM method,regression control method and cross-lagged panel model to test the specific changes of public expenditure,bank credit and economic growth after the earthquake.Although public expenditure and bank credit increased significantly after the Wenchuan earthquake,which promoted the economic growth,the GDP of Sichuan Province decreased significantly in the short term due to the large direct economic loss after the earthquake.This finding makes clear the causality and directions among public expenditure,bank credit and economic growth:First,in China’s macro environment,the causal relationship between public expenditure and economic growth is in line with the Keynesian hypothesis,that is,as fiscal expenditure increases,GDP also increases.Second,when bank credit is an exogenous variable,increasing bank credit can significantly increase GDP rather than the opposite.Third,the increase in public expenditure can promote the expansion of bank credit,and the two are highly complementary.
作者
姚东旻
陈翊婧
罗勇
许艺煊
Yao Dongmin;Chen Yijing;Luo Yong;Xu Yixuan
出处
《财政研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第2期78-95,共18页
Public Finance Research
关键词
财政支出
银行信贷
经济增长
因果推断
Public Expenditure
Bank Credit
Economic Growth
Causal Inference
