摘要
文中通过检索《中国基本古籍库》及《爱如生数据库·中国方志库》,搜集史料,构建导致人口大量死亡的疫灾频次与县次序列。采用最小二乘法、空间插值等方法,探讨疫灾发生的时间与空间分布特征,并通过灾害链分析疫灾发生的过程。结果表明:1)自公元1368年至1911年,导致人口大量死亡的疫灾共计发生156次,平均3.49a发生一次;波及的县次共计492县次,平均每年发生0.9县;明末与明清交替时期导致人口大量死亡的疫灾最为频繁,影响范围最广。2)空间分布上,驿路、内河航运沿线和沿海地区、人口密集区、水旱蝗等灾害频发区,为导致人口大量死亡的疫灾频发区。3)导致人口大量死亡的疫灾灾害链共有26种,疫灾多为气候异常引起的自然灾害(水、旱、蝗)、饥荒和战争的衍生,并且与它们都具有极显著的时间与空间上的相关性,与疫灾的相关程度,在时间尺度上,水灾>旱灾>蝗灾>战争;在空间尺度上,水灾>旱灾>战争>蝗灾,以水灾与疫灾间的相关性最为显著。
In this paper,we searched the"Basic Ancient Books Database of China"and"Airusheng Database·China Local Records Database"to collect historical data to construct the frequency of epidemics and counties that caused a large number of deaths.The least squares method,spatial interpolation and other methods were used to explore the time and space distribution characteristics of the epidemic,and the process of the epidemics were analyzed through the disaster chains.The results showed that:1)From 1368 to 1911,there were 156 epidemics that caused massive deaths,with an average of 3.49a;total of 492 counties were affected,with an average of 0.9 counties per year.During the late Ming and early Qing dynasty,the epidemics that caused a large number of deaths were the most frequent and had the widest impact.2)In terms of spatial distribution,disaster-prone areas such as post roads,inland waterways and coastal areas,densely populated areas,and areas where frequently occurred floods,droughts and locusts disasters were the epidemic areas that caused a large number of deaths.3)There were 26 kinds of epidemic disaster chains that caused massive deaths of the population.Most of the epidemic disasters were natural disasters(floods,droughts,locusts),famines and wars that caused by abnormal weather,and they all showed extremely significant temporal and spatial characteristics.On the time scale,the correlation between the above and the epidemic was flood>drought>locust disaster>war;on the spatial scale,it showed flood>drought>war>locust disaster.The correlation between flood and epidemics was the most significant.
作者
赵宇莲
殷淑燕
刘静
毋子玉
ZHAO Yulian;YIN Shuyan;LIU Jing;WU Ziyu(School of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710119,China;College of Geography and Environment,Baoji University of Arts and Sciences,Baoji 721013,China)
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第2期73-80,共8页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(18YJA770021)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41771110)资助。
关键词
人口大量死亡事件
疫灾
时空分布
灾害链
明清时期
mass deaths
epidemic disasters
spatial and temporal distribution
disaster chain
Ming and Qing dynasties
