摘要
当前中国经济存在"债务升高-核心CPI通缩压力-食品涨价较快-部分资产价格存在泡沫化迹象"的复杂格局,传统经济循环机制下的积极宏观政策容易导致衰退式泡沫和债务攀升。较高的宏观杠杆率抑制了消费与投资,会进一步导致核心CPI出现通缩压力。在实体经济和消费乏力的情况下,积极宏观政策所释放的资金流向虚拟经济,尤其容易导致区域性城市房地产泡沫。为了应对中国经济的复杂局面,有必要逐步形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。构建双循环的关键在于两点:一是切实通过收入分配制度改革来提高居民收入水平与消费水平,尤其是着力提升中等收入群体的收入水平与消费水平。二是通过市场化机制着力提升有效生产性投资,而不是依赖房地产来稳投资和稳增长。
The current Chinese economy has a complex pattern of "debt increasing-core CPI deflationary pressure rising-food price rising-some asset bubbles expansion". Active macroeconomic policies under the traditional economic cycle mechanism can easily lead to recessive bubbles and debt rising. High macro leverage ratio inhibits consumption and investment, which will further lead to deflationary pressure on the core CPI rising. When the real economy and consumption are weak, the funds released by the active macroeconomic policies flow to the virtual economy. It leads to regional urban real estate bubbles easily. In order to cope with the complicated situation of China’s economy, it is necessary to gradually form a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and mutual promotion of the domestic and international cycles. The key to building the dual circulation lies in two points. Firstly, increasing the income and consumption levels of residents through income distribution reform, especially the income and consumption levels of middle-income group. Secondly, improving effective productive investment through market-based mechanisms, rather than relying on real estate to stabilize investment and economic growth.
作者
陈彦斌
Chen Yanbin(School of Economics,Renmin University of China)
出处
《经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第6期11-15,共5页
Economic Review
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“供给侧结构性改革与发展新动力研究”(项目编号:16ZDA006)的阶段性成果。
关键词
双循环
宏观经济
经济增长
居民消费
投资
Dual Circulation
Macro Economy
Economic Growth
Residents’Consumption
Investment
