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经济增长动力演进与“十三五”增速估算 被引量:27

Dynamic Evolution of Economic Growth and Estimate of Economic Growth in 13th Five-Year Plan Period
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摘要 市场化改革不仅可以提升资源配置效率,还可以通过营造公平的市场环境促进技术进步,提升人力资本质量与利用率,并同时优化资本积累与劳动供给的结构,由此能够更有效地推动我国经济增长动力的转换。基于增长核算模型的测算表明,"十三五"期间我国经济平均潜在增速将仅有6.2%,难以达到6.5%的增长目标。但如果深化市场化改革以促进增长动力转换,"十三五"期间的平均潜在增速可提高至7%左右。因此,政府应加快市场化改革的步伐,以保证我国经济实现可持续的中高速增长。 Marketization reform can not only improve the efficiency of resource allocation, but also promote technological progress, enhance the quality and utilization of human capital, and improve the structure of capital accumulation and labor supply by creating a fair market environment, thus can promote the transformation of China's economic growth impetus more effectively. Our growth accounting model shows that, China's economic potential growth rate will decline to an average of 6.2% in 13th five-year plan period, difficult to achieve the growth target of 6.5%. However, If we deepen marketization reform to promote growth impetus transformation, China's economic potential growth can be increased to an average of about 7% in 13th five-year plan period. Therefore, the government should accelerate the pace of marketization reform to ensure sustainable rapid economic growth.
作者 陈彦斌 刘哲希 Chen Yanbin Liu Zhexi
出处 《改革》 CSSCI 北大核心 2016年第10期106-117,共12页 Reform
基金 国家社会科学基金重点项目"我国经济发展新常态下的货币政策研究"(批准号:15AZD004)
关键词 市场化改革 经济增长动力 宏观审慎管理 marketization reform, economic growth momentum, macro-prudential management
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