摘要
工业大气污染物排放量的影响因素确定是区域大气污染防治策略制定的重要依据之一。以2006—2017年浙江11个地级市的3种主要工业大气污染物(二氧化硫、氮氧化物和烟粉尘)排放量为研究对象,在空间计量经济学视角下探究了社会影响因素的效应。结果发现:(1)12年间,3种工业大气污染物排放量均呈现出总体削减的趋势。全局莫兰指数分析表明,2010年以后大气污染物排放量的空间集聚性趋于增强,主要集聚在杭州、嘉兴、宁波一带。(2)普通面板回归模型分析结果表明,经济发展水平对3种工业大气污染物排放的影响呈“倒U型”趋势。产业结构和能源结构对二氧化硫和氮氧化物的排放具有促进作用,环境污染治理水平具有削减作用,而科技进步水平对二氧化硫和烟粉尘排放量具有削减作用。(3)空间杜宾模型分析表明,经济发展水平和能源结构对3种工业大气污染物的排放主要体现为直接影响;产业结构除直接影响外,对氮氧化物和烟粉尘排放还具有溢出效应;科技进步水平和环境污染治理水平同时存在直接影响和溢出效应。未来,浙江需实施重点地区重点控制和联防联控协同治理“两手抓”策略,并应积极发挥工业企业的科技进步水平和环境污染治理水平等削减作用及其空间溢出效应。
Knowledge of social influencing factors of industrial air pollutants emission is one of important foundations for the formulation of regional air pollution control strategy.In the view of spatial econometircs,the social influencing factors in Zhejiang of industrial air pollutants emission were discussed based on the data of 3 major industrial air pollutants(SO 2,NO x and dust)emission from 2006 to 2017 in 11 prefecture-level cities.Results showed that:(1)during the 12 years,the 3 industrial air pollutants emission all showed a trend of reducing.The global Moran’s index revealed that there existed a gathering trend after 2010,especially in Hangzhou,Jiaxing and Ningbo.(2)Normal Panel Regression Model showed that economic development level had an effect of“reverse U-shape”on 3 industrial air pollutants emission.Industrial structure and energy structure had improving effect on SO 2 and NO x emission,while environmental pollution treatment level had reducing effect.Scientific level had reducing effect on SO 2 and dust emission.(3)Spatial Dubin Model indicated that economic development level and energy structure had only direct effect on 3 industrial air pollutants emission;besides direct effect,industrial structure had indirect effect on NO x and dust emission,too;scientific level and environmental pollution treatment level had both direct and indirect effects.In the future,Zhejiang needs to implement the“Double Measures”strategy of key control and joint prevention in key areas,and to let scientific level and environmental pollution treatment level reduce pollutants emission with indirect effect actively.
作者
丁镭
刁贝娣
DING Lei;DIAO Beidi(Research Center of Industrial Economy Around Hangzhou Bay,Ningbo Polytechnic,Ningbo Zhejiang 315800;School of Economics and Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221000)
出处
《环境污染与防治》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第1期132-138,共7页
Environmental Pollution & Control
基金
浙江省软科学研究计划项目(No.2019C35108)。
关键词
工业大气污染物
空间杜宾模型
影响因素
空间效应
浙江
industrial air pollutants
Spatial Dubin Model
influencing factors
spatial effects
Zhejiang
