摘要
跨境河流水量分配不均极易引发流域国间的冲突,如何在沿岸国之间实现公平合理的水量分配是流域国达成共识机制的关键。在总供给水量无法满足各沿岸国用水需求的前提下,使用破产理论分析具有明显优势,其合作博弈的性质和对个体关注的特点使其具有较好的应用前景。本文在比较评估10种已有破产规则的有效性和局限性基础上,对破产理论下的跨境河流水量分配方法进行优化改进。首先,依照破产理论的“清偿顺序”,确定有限水量进行破产分配的顺序,优先保证最基本人类生活用水和生态需水。其次,结合国际水法提出的“公平合理”和“不造成重大损害”原则,综合考虑其他因素,增设水资源贡献量、人口自然增长量、水资源开发落后地区倾斜系数和最低供水保障率四个参数,分别对PRO、CEL、AP三种传统破产规则进行改进,构建加权破产模型,探讨更加公平合理的跨境河流水量分配方法。最后,以澜沧江—湄公河流域旱季为例,测算不同破产规则下各沿岸国的分水量及满意度,在采用Borda计数法对各国偏好排序的基础上,综合考虑话语权的CPBSI(compromise programming based stability index)指数,定量判断各分配方法的稳定性。结果表明:①改进后的R_PRO、R_CEL、R_AP三种破产模型平均CPBSI指数值较低,整体稳定性较高,特别是相较于原分配方法均有较大幅度的降低,稳定性显著增强,可见本文提出的改进水量分配方法具有较好的适用性;②在改进后的模型中,R_PRO方法下的CPBSI指数最低,其次是R_AP,两者相对来说是比较稳定的水量分配方案,最有可能为流域成员国所接受,这对未来流域一体化相关协议的签订和谈判具有重要意义。
The uneven allocation of water resources of transboundary rivers can easily lead to conflicts among basin countries.Allocating water fairly and reasonably among these countries is a key step to reach a consensus.When the total water supply cannot meet the demand of the countries,bankruptcy theory has obvious advantages,which is promising for its cooperative game nature and attention to individual gains.By evaluating the effectiveness and limitations of the 10 existing bankruptcy rules,we optimized the method of transboundary river water allocation under bankruptcy theory.Firstly,according to the‘liquidation order’of bankruptcy theory,we first set priorities for the allocation of limited water resources to ensure the most basic human and ecological needs.Then we combined the principles of‘fairness and rationality’and‘no major harm’proposed by international water law,and added four parameters,including water resource contribution,natural population growth,inclination coefficient of backward areas in water resource development and minimum water supply guarantee rate,to improve the three bankruptcy rules of PRO,CEL and AP and explore a more fair and rational allocation method by building weighted bankruptcy models.Finally,by taking the Lancang-Mekong River Basin as an example of the empirical study,we calculated the final allocated water volume and satisfaction degree of each country along the river under different methods.On the basis of the Borda Count to rank the preferences of the countries,the stability of each allocation method was quantitatively judged by the CPBSI index.The results showed that the average CPBSI index value of the three modified models was relatively low,and particularly when compared with the original allocation methods,these CPBSI indexes were significantly reduced.It can be seen that the stability of the three improved bankruptcy rules were enhanced and they had good applicability.Besides,among these improved models,the CPBSI index of R_PRO was the lowest,followed by R_AP,which
作者
陈艳萍
刘晶婕
吴凤平
CHEN Yanping;LIU Jingjie;WU Fengping(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing Jiangsu 211100,China;National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety,Nanjing Jiangsu 210098,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第12期66-74,共9页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“跨境水资源确权与分配方法及保障体系研究”(批准号:17ZDA064)。
关键词
跨境河流
水量分配
破产理论
公平合理
transboundary river
water allocation
bankruptcy theory
fairness and rationality
