摘要
科学预测河北省未来的水资源生态足迹和生态承载力,对于区域水资源可持续利用具有重要意义。利用系统动力学(SD)法和生态足迹模型构建河北省水资源利用SD模型,设计现状延续型情景ES1、经济发展型情景ES2、节约用水型情景ES3和协调发展型情景ES4等4类不同发展情景,对现状(2006~2021年)和未来(2022~2050年)水资源生态足迹进行评价与预测。结果表明:①对于现状年份,人均水资源生态足迹呈缓慢下降趋势,人均水资源生态承载力呈波动变化,水资源处于生态赤字,表明水资源利用处于不安全状态,但水资源利用效率越来越高。②对于预测年份,4类发展情景的人均水资源生态足迹和水资源生态压力指数均呈增长趋势,水资源均处于生态赤字,并且亏损程度逐年严重。虽然万元GDP水资源生态足迹均呈下降趋势,未来的水资源利用效率越来越高,但未来水资源利用压力仍过大。③情景ES4是最适宜的情景,既能以适当的速度保证河北省未来社会经济发展,又能降低水资源生态压力。河北省在未来水资源利用过程中,需从多方面采取积极行动,以确保水资源可持续利用发展。
Scientific prediction on future water resources ecological footprint and carrying capacity in Hebei Province is of great significance for the regional water resources sustainable utilization.A system dynamics(SD)model of water resource utilization was constructed based on the SD method and ecological footprint model in Hebei Province.We designed four scenarios,status quo continuation scenario ES1,economic development scenario ES2,water conservation scenario ES3,and coordinated development scenario ES4,to evaluate and predict the water resources ecological footprint in the present(2006~2021)and future(2022~2050).The results indicate that:①for the current years,the per capita water resources ecological footprint and carrying capacity show a slowly decreasing and a fluctuating trend respectively,and the water resources are in ecological deficit,which indicates that water resources utilization is in an unsafe state.However,the water resources are being used more and more efficiently.②In the future,the per capita water resources ecological footprint and ecological stress index of all the scenarios show a growing trend,and the water resources are all in ecological deficit with more severe indicators year by year;the water resources ecological footprint of 104 RMB GDP all show a decreasing trend,which indicates the water resources utilization efficiency will continue to increase in the future.However,the water resources utilization pressure is still too large.③ES4 is the most suitable scenario,which can ensure the future socio-economic development of Hebei Province at an appropriate rate and reduce the ecological pressure on water resources.In the process of future water resource utilization in Hebei Province,it is necessary to take positive action in many ways to ensure the sustainable utilization and development of water resources.
作者
王健泉
秦欢欢
WANG Jianquan;QIN Huanhuan(School of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China;State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Resources and Environment,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China)
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2024年第8期114-124,132,共12页
Yangtze River
基金
东华理工大学博士科研启动基金项目(DHBK2016104)。
关键词
水资源生态足迹
生态赤字
系统动力学模型
生态足迹模型
河北省
water resources ecological footprint
ecological deficit
system dynamics model
ecological footprint model
Hebei Province
