摘要
从政策、资金、社会稳定和项目开发4个方面构建城市棚户区改造项目前期决策清单。采用社会网络分析法进行关键风险因素和关键风险关系识别,以得出的关键风险关系构建模糊贝叶斯网络,引入三角模糊数进行先验概率和条件概率分布计算,并通过参数学习、正向因果推理和反向推理,最终确定城市棚户区改造前期决策关键风险因素和项目风险等级。最后通过算例分析表明该评价模型应用于城市棚户区改造项目的合理性和可行性。
This paper aims to establish the preliminary decision list of urban shantytown renovation projects from four aspects of policy:fund,social stability and project development.The social network analysis method is used to identify the key risk factors and key risks,and then to draw the key risks of relationship building fuzzy bayesian networks;triangular fuzzy number is introduced to calculated prior probability and conditional probability distribution.Through the parameter learning,positive causal reasoning and backward reasoning,eventually urban shantytowns transformation early decision project key risk factors and risk level are determined.Finally,an example is given to show the rationality and feasibility of applying the evaluation model to urban shantytown reconstruction projects.
作者
马立强
张雪雪
王丞
MA Li-qiang;ZHANG Xue-xue;WANG Cheng(Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai 264005, China)
出处
《山东工商学院学报》
2020年第6期56-65,共10页
Journal of Shandong Technology and Business University
基金
山东省社科规划项目“山东省工业废弃地绿色治理机制构建研究”(19CGLJ18)
山东工商学院研究生科技创新基金项目“基于SNA-BN的棚户区改造项目前期决策风险管理研究”(2019yc002)。
关键词
城市棚改项目
社会网络分析
贝叶斯网络
三角模糊数
urban shantytown renovation project
social network analysis
Bayesian networks
triangle fuzzy number
