摘要
针对目前公路边坡失稳事故频发,安全评价问题日益突出,而传统的边坡可靠性分析方法大多不能同时处理具有模糊性和多态性的系统可靠性分析问题,提出了一种基于多态模糊贝叶斯网络的桩锚支护边坡失稳可能性评价方法。该方法利用三角模糊子集描述根节点先验概率,用[0,1]模糊数描述节点故障状态,克服了传统贝叶斯网络过度依赖精确概率以及不能考虑节点中间故障状态的问题;依托某公路9级边坡,构建了桩锚支护边坡失稳多态模糊贝叶斯网络,并进行了失稳可能性评价。结果表明:多态模糊贝叶斯网络能够准确评价桩锚支护公路边坡不同失稳状态发生的可能性,且比传统贝叶斯网络更加贴合工程实际;针对根节点的模糊重要度分析结果可用于指导边坡失稳风险控制工作;实例边坡出现"严重"失稳事故的可能性较大,根节点"混凝土锚墩破坏"和"承压板或夹片破坏"对其失稳的影响最为显著。
In view of the frequent accidents of highway slope instability and the increasingly prominent problems of safety evaluation,and the traditional method of slope reliability analysis cannot simultaneously deal with the problem of system reliability analysis with fuzziness and polymorphism,a method of slope instability evaluation based on polymorphic fuzzy Bayesian network is proposed.This method uses triangular fuzzy subset to describe the priori probability of root node and[0,1]fuzzy number to describe the fault state of node,which overcomes the problem of over-reliance on exact probability of traditional Bayesian network and the failure state of intermediate nodes.Based on the slope of a ninth grade highway,the multi-state fuzzy Bayesian network of pileanchor supporting slope instability is constructed and the possibility of instability is evaluated.The results show that:the multi-state fuzzy Bayesian network can accurately evaluate the possibility of different instability states of highway slope supported by piles and anchors,and more suitable to engineering practice than the traditional Bayesian network.The results of fuzzy importance analysis of root joints can be used to guide the risk control of slope instability.The possibility of"serious"failure of the slope in the case is greater,and the most significant effects of"concrete anchor pier failure"and"bearing plate or splint failure"of the root joints are on the slope stability.
作者
钟国强
徐润
宋杰
赵杰
王超
柳尚
ZHONG Guo-qiang;XU Run;SONG Jie;ZHAO Jie;WANG Chao;LIU Shang(Shandong Provincial Communications Planning and Design Institute,Jinan 250031,China)
出处
《公路》
北大核心
2020年第2期50-55,共6页
Highway
基金
山东省交通运输科技计划项目,项目编号2018B58、2018B57
国家自然科学基金项目,项目编号51809157.
关键词
岩土工程
边坡
失稳
可能性评价
多态模糊贝叶斯网络
重要度分析
geotechnical engineering
slope
instability
possibility evaluation
polymorphic fuzzy Bayesian Networks
importance analysis
