摘要
PPP棚改项目风险具有阶段性、复杂性和多变性等特点,当前对PPP棚改项目风险的研究大多以理论分析为主,缺乏定量评价。本文建立基于博弈论组合赋权法的PPP棚改项目风险评价模型,运用WBS-RBS法识别出影响项目的主要风险因素,建立含有5个准则层指标和30个方案层指标的层次体系,然后运用博弈论组合理论将改进的层次分析法(Cov-AHP)和熵权法求出的权重优化组合综合赋权,通过建立的模糊评语集计算各指标层相应的风险值并对结果进行分析。研究结果表明,在整个PPP棚改项目中施工安装阶段的风险因素最多且风险值最大,其次依次是立项准备阶段、征地拆迁阶段、交付回迁阶段和竣工验收阶段,最后就项目中存在的风险因素,提出具有针对性的风险防范对策和建议。
The risks of PPP shantytown renewal project are characterized by stage,complexity and variability.Most of the current studies on the risks of PPP shantytown renewal projects are based on theoretical analysis and lack of quantitative evaluation.In this paper,a risk assessment model of PPP shantytown renewal project based on game theory combination weighting method is established,and the main risk factors affecting the project are identified by using the WBS-RBS method,and a hierarchical system containing 5 criterion level indicators and 30 program level indicators is established,then the combination of the improved analytic hierarchy process(Cov-AHP)and entropy weight method by the theory of game theory are used to find the optimal combination of weights.The corresponding risk values of each index layer are calculated and the results are analyzed through the established fuzzy evaluation set.The research results show that in the whole PPP shantytown renewal project,the risk factors in the construction and installation stage are the most and largest,followed by the project preparation stage,land acquisition and demolition stage,delivery and relocation stage and completion acceptance stage.Finally,according to the risk factors in the project,specific risk prevention countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
作者
黄桂林
魏修路
HUANG Gui-lin;WEI Xiu-lu(School of Civil Engineering,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)
出处
《土木工程与管理学报》
北大核心
2019年第4期40-46,共7页
Journal of Civil Engineering and Management
基金
“十三五”国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0701600)
关键词
PPP棚改项目
Cov-AHP
熵权法
博弈论组合赋权
模糊综合评价
PPP shantytown renewal project
Cov-AHP
entropy weight method
game theory combination weighting
fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
