摘要
选取宜宾市2016年1月至2020年4月商品房销售价格的月度统计数据,利用EViews进行ADF平稳性检验,并构建马尔科夫模型,预测未来一段时间内宜宾市的房价走势.结果表明,宜宾市房价在五、六月份时可能有所下降,未来12个月很可能处于上升趋势,处于平稳状态的几率较小.而终极状态概率预测值上升概率大于平稳大于下降,进一步说明宜宾市房价在未来很长一段时间内处于波动状态,且上升的势头非常明显.
The monthly statistical data of commercial housing sales price in Yibin from January 2016 to April 2020 was selected,and by using EViews software to detect the ADF stability,Markov model was constructed to predict the price trend of Yibin in the future.The results show that the price of commercial housing in Yibin is likely to rise in the next 12 months,only in May and June it may decline,and the probability of being stable is small.The ultimate state probability prediction value,the rising probability is greater than the steady and falling possibilities,further indicating that the price of commercial housing in Yibin is in a state of fluctuation for a long time in the future,and the rising momentum is very obvious.
作者
李秀芝
刘成林
刘琴
李晨曦
张芳婕
高宇豪
LI Xiuzhi;LIU Chenglin;LIU Qin;LI Chenxi;ZHANG Fangjie;GAO Yuhao(School of Geography and Resource Science,Neijiang Normal University,Neijiang,Sichuan 641100,China)
出处
《宜宾学院学报》
2020年第12期70-73,共4页
Journal of Yibin University
基金
内江师范学院省级大学生创新创业训练计划资助项目“基于灰色关联度的宜宾市房价影响因素分析”(X2018057)
内江市社科规划课题资助项目“内江市商品房住宅价格影响因素及走势预测”(Z015023)。
关键词
马尔科夫链
房价
预测
宜宾市
Markov chain
house price
forecast
Yibin city
