摘要
波斯湾地区油气资源丰富,是全球重要的能源供应区。丰富的战略资源、独特的地理位置条件、多元的社会宗教文化、多行为主体的政治经济博弈,以及现存区域治理机制的缺失等因素,使该区能源供应以及能源航运面临一系列传统与非传统风险。美国和伊朗对于霍尔木兹海峡的国际法地位问题、“封锁”或“阻断”问题有争议,两国在波斯湾存在军事部署和博弈。沙特阿拉伯与伊朗的冲突、沙特阿拉伯与卡塔尔的冲突都会对波斯湾能源航道造成威胁。波斯湾的地理水文条件不利于航道安全。波斯湾能源航道周边国家众多,域内国家的族群冲突、教派冲突给能源供应和油气港口运作造成潜在的经济风险与安全风险。地理水文风险和宗教文化风险是长期性风险,在政治风险和危机条件下容易发酵。
As an important energy supply region in the world,abundant strategic resources,unique geographical conditions,diverse social and religious cultures,political and economic games among multiple actors,and the absence of existing regional governance mechanisms make the energy supply and energy shipping in the Persian Gulf face a series of traditional and non-traditional risks.The United States and Iran have disputes over the status of the Strait of Hormuz under international law and the issue of“blockade”and“close”,and two countries have military deployments and games in the Persian Gulf.The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran as well as the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Qatar all pose a threat to the Persian Gulf energy channel.The geographical and hydrological conditions of the Persian Gulf are not conducive to the safety of shipping.Meanwhile,many countries around the energy channel in the Persian Gulf,ethnic and sectarian conflicts in the countries within the region cause potential economic and security risks to energy supply and oil and gas port operation.Geographical hydrology and cultural conflicts are long-term risks,which are easy to ferment under political risks and crisis scenarios.
作者
邵红峦
陈腾瀚
SHAO Hongluan;CHEN Tenghan(School of International Relations and Public Affairs,Fudan University;Fudan Institute of Belt and Road&Global Governance)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2020年第11期69-75,89,共8页
International Petroleum Economics
关键词
能源航道
地区风险
波斯湾
多国博弈
能源供应
地缘风险
霍尔木兹海峡
energy channel
regional risks
the Persian Gulf
multinational game
energy supply
geo-risk
Strait of Hormuz
