摘要
针对现有地质灾害易发性评价指标定量表征困难以及单一评价模型存在不同程度缺陷的问题,以模糊数学理论、概率论为基础,采用层次分析法确定指标权重,构建了加权模糊概率指数综合评价模型,并将其应用于咸阳南部地质灾害易发性评价,以验证该模型的实用性及可靠性。结果表明:以概率论及模糊数学理论为指导,实现了地质灾害易发性评价指标及综合评价指数的定量化表征,克服了单一模糊评价模型主观随意性较大的不足,且分区结果符合野外实地调查验证情况。评价方法可为区域地质灾害易发性分析的理论研究及应用提供借鉴。
Regarding the difficulty about quantitative characterization of geological hazard susceptibility and the varying degrees of defect in single evaluation model,we constructed a comprehensive evaluation model of weighted fuzzy probability index based on fuzzy mathematics theory and probability theory,which uses analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weight.We verified the practicality and reliability of this model in the southern Xianyang’s geological disasters evaluation.The results showed that based on the theory of probability and fuzzy mathematics,we realized the quantitative characterization of the geological disaster susceptibility evaluation index and the comprehensive evaluation index,overcoming the shortcomings of a single fuzzy evaluation model that was subjective and arbitrary,and the zoning results were in line with the field survey verification.The evaluation method can provide a reference for the theoretical research and application of regional geological hazard susceptibility analysis.
作者
宋亚娅
张航泊
SONG Yaya;ZHANG Hangbo(Shaanxi Center of Hydrogeological,Engineering and Enviromment Geological survey,Xi’an 710016,China;Shaanxi Engineering Research Center of Urban Geology and Underground Space,Xi’an 710016,China)
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2020年第11期109-115,共7页
Yangtze River
基金
陕西省公益性调查基金项目(20160302,20180303,201914)。
关键词
地质灾害
易发性评价
模糊数学理论
概率论
层次分析法
咸阳市
geological disaster
evaluation of susceptibility
fuzzy mathematics theory
probability theory
analytic hierarchy process
Xianyang City
