摘要
随着中国经济发展步入新常态,准确研判中国制造业技术进步与其GVC位置演变关系,对于丰富全球价值链理论以及实现中国制造业向全球价值链中高端攀升具有重要意义。采用2000—2014年中国15个二位数制造业面板数据,运用门槛回归模型深入分析中国制造业技术进步与其GVC位置演变关系。研究结果显示:(1)从制造业整体看,技术进步和全球价值链位置存在负相关线性关系,且制造业GVC参与度、技术进步和GVC参与度的交乘项显著促进了制造业全球价值链位置攀升。从不同要素密集型产业看,技术进步、制造业GVC参与度、技术进步和GVC参与度的交乘项与全球价值链位置呈现明显的行业异质性。(2)在门槛分组下,“中技术水平、高参与度”产业、“中技术水平、中参与度”产业、“低技术水平、中参与度”产业、“中技术水平、低参与度”产业技术进步与GVC位置演变分别存在U形、U形、U形、线性关系。(3)在GVC参与度一定条件下,技术水平越高,拐点值越大;而在技术水平一定下,GVC参与度越高,拐点值越大。
As China’s economic development enters a new normal,it’s of great significance to accurately judge relationship between China’s manufacturing technology advancement and its GVC position evolution for enriching GVC theory and realizing China’s manufacturing industry’s moving to the middle and upper end of the global value chain.This paper uses panel data of 15 industries in China’s manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2014,and uses the model of threshold regression to analyze the relationship between technological progress of China’s manufacturing industry and its GVC location.The results show that:(1)From the perspective of manufacturing industry as a whole,there is a negative correlation between technological progress and global value chain position,and manufacturing GVC participation,technological progress and GVC participation significantly promote GVC position of manufacturing industry to climb.From the perspective of different factor-intensive industries,technological progress,manufacturing GVC participation,crossover items of technological progress and GVC participation and global value chain positions show obvious industry heterogeneity.(2)Under the threshold grouping,“medium technology level,high participation”industry,“medium technology level,medium participation”industry,“low technology level,medium participation”industry,“medium technology level,low participation”exit U-shaped,U-shaped,U-shaped and linear relationships between industrial technological progress and GVC position evolution.(3)Under certain conditions of GVC participation,the higher the technical level,the greater the inflection point value,while at a certain technical level,the higher the GVC participation,the greater the inflection point value.
作者
杨蕙馨
田洪刚
YANG HuiXin;Tian HongGang(Shandong University, Jinan 250100;Jinan University, Jinan 250002)
出处
《财贸研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第11期27-40,共14页
Finance and Trade Research
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“创新驱动我国制造业迈向全球价值链中高端研究”(18AJY011)。
关键词
技术进步
全球价值链
参与度
门槛回归
technological progress
global value chain
participation
threshold regression
