摘要
基于河南省15个气象站1960-2018年汛期(6-9月)逐日降水数据,运用线性回归、趋势分析、降水集中度Q指数和GIS等方法对河南省汛期降水集中程度及时空分布特征进行了分析。结果表明:1960-2018年河南省汛期降水量和Q指数均呈上升趋势,倾向率分别为0.45 mm/10 a和0.002/10 a。降水日数以-0.107 d/10 a的倾向率呈减小趋势,河南省汛期降水趋于集中。河南省汛期Q指数呈东北向西南逐渐减小趋势,汛期降水量呈东南向西北递减趋势,降水日数呈由西南向东北递减趋势,表明河南省汛期降水多的地区,其降水日数较多,降水较为分散。59年来河南省汛期有效降水日数以-0.257 d/10 a的倾向率呈减小趋势,强降水和极端降水日数分别以0.027、0.012 d/10 a的倾向率呈增加趋势,表明河南省强降水和极端降水日数占比呈增大趋势,降水更为集中,更容易产生洪涝灾害。从空间分布来看,东北部地区有效降水日数相对其他地区较少,但强降水和极端降水日数相对较多,降水更为集中。
Based on daily precipitation data of 15 meteorological stations in flood seasons in Henan Province from 1960 to 2018,the methods of linear regression,trend analysis,the precipitation concentration index(Q)and GIS are employed to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation and its concentration degree in flood seasons in Henan Province.The results indicate that,from 1960 to 2018,the precipitation and Q index in flood seasons of Henan show an upward trend,with a tendency rate of 0.45 mm/10 a and 0.002/10 a,respectively.The precipitation days decreased at a rate of-0.107 d/10 a,and the precipitation in flood season tended to be concentrated in Henan during 1960-2018.The Q index of flood season in Henan showed a decreasing trend from northeast to southwest,while the precipitation increased from southeast to northwest,and precipitation days in flood seasons decreased from southwest to northeast.It showed that the area with more precipitation in flood seasons had more precipitation days and more scattered precipitation.The effective precipitation days in flood seasons decreased at a rate of-0.257 d/10 a,while the heavy precipitation and extreme precipitation days presented increasing trends,with a tendency rate of 0.027 and 0.012 d/10 a,respectively,showing that the proportion of heavy precipitation and extreme precipitation days was increasing,the precipitation was more concentrated,and flood disaster was more likely to occur.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the number of effective precipitation days in eastern and northern Henan was less than that in other areas,but the number of strong precipitation days and extreme precipitation days were more,showing the precipitation was more concentrated.
作者
张志高
耿益新
蔡茂堂
尹纪媛
张秀丽
孙梓欣
ZHANG Zhi-gao;GENG Yi-xin;CAI Mao-tang;YIN Ji-yuan;ZHANG Xiu-li;SUN Zi-xin(School of Resources Environment and Tourism, Anyang Normal University, Anyang 455000, Henan Province, China;Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2020年第11期14-18,23,共6页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41602366)
河南省高等学校青年教师项目(2020GGJS188)
河南省高校重点科研项目(20A170001)
安阳师范学院大学生创业训练计划项目(X2020104790148)。
关键词
汛期降水
Q指数
变化趋势
空间分布
河南省
flood season precipitation
Q-index
changing trend
spatial distribution
Henan Province
