摘要
基于山东省济宁市内及周边共22个气象站1970—2019年的降水资料,利用泰森多边形法计算年平均降水量,然后采用降水倾向率法、M-K(Manner-Kendall)突变检验法、Morlet小波分析法以及普通克里金插值法分析该地区降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:利用泰森多边形法计算的年平均降水量为688 mm;年际降水突变较为频繁,20世纪70年代降水量出现突变性减少,但2000年后又出现了明显的突变性增加。可见,1970—2019年来,济宁市年际降水先减后增,总体呈略微上升趋势,在空间上表现为由西北向东南逐渐增加。年际降水主要以30 a的大周期变化为主,其次4 a、9 a以及17 a的中、小周期变化也比较显著。以上结果有助于了解济宁市降水的变化趋势,对当地未来降水预测以及水资源的管理和开发利用具有一定的参考意义。
Based on the daily and monthly precipitation data of 22 meteorological stations in and around Jining from1970 to 2019,the Tyson polygon method was used to calculate the average precipitation.Then,the precipitation tendency rate,M-K mutation test,Morlet wavelet analysis and ordinary Kriging interpolation method were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of precipitation in this area.The results show that the average annual precipitation calculated by Tyson polygon method is 688 mm.There are frequent abrupt changes in interannual precipitation,which abruptly decreased in 1970 s,but increased obviously after 2000.Therefore,during 1970—2019,the annual precipitation in Jining increased first and then decreased,showing a slight upward trend overall,and gradually increased from northwest to southeast in space.The annual precipitation is dominated by large cycle variation of 30 a,followed by medium and small cycle variation of 4 a,9 a and 17 a.The above results are helpful to understand the trend of precipitation in Jining area,and have certain reference significance for the prediction of future precipitation,the management,development and utilization of water resources.
作者
王鹏
朱汉青
李芳
WANG Peng;ZHU Hanqing;LI Fang(Jining Yanzhou Meteorological Bureau,Jining Shandong 272100;Jinan Zhangqiu Meteorological Bureau,Jinan Shandong 250200;Jining Meteorological Bureau,Jining Shandong 272100)
出处
《河南科技》
2021年第20期121-125,共5页
Henan Science and Technology
基金
山东省自然科学基金(ZR2020MD053)
山东省气象局面上课题(2019sdqxm19)。
关键词
降水量
空间插值
突变性
小波分析
precipitation
spatial interpolation
abrupt change
wavelet analysis
