摘要
基于一重载铁路大量历史检测数据,利用灰色区间理论建立了重载铁路轨道质量指数的灰色区间预测模型,对重载铁路轨道质量指数变化规律进行了预测。模型采用分段三次Hermite插值函数将非等时距序列转化为等时距序列,将所选区段单次检测平均值作为观测值,根据预测结果反算求得每个单元区段的轨道质量指数预测值。结果表明,采用灰色区间预测模型能够对重载铁路轨道质量指数的发展变化进行高效率、高精度的模拟与预测。
Based on the large amount of historical inspection data of a heavy haul railway,a grey interval prediction model of the heavy haul railway track quality index(TQI)was established by using the grey interval theory,and the change law of the heavy haul railway TQI was predicted.The model used the piecewise cubic Hermite interpolation function to transform the non-equal interval time series into an equal interval time series,and made the single inspection average value of the selected segment as the observation value.The TQI predicted value of each unit segment was inversely calculated according to the prediction results.The results show that the development and change of heavy haul railway TQI can be simulated and predicted with high efficiency and high precision by using the gray interval prediction model.
作者
赖思成
高建敏
閤鑫
LAI Sicheng;GAO Jianmin;GE Xin(State Key Laboratory of Traction Power,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China)
出处
《铁道建筑》
北大核心
2020年第10期130-133,145,共5页
Railway Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金(51678507)
牵引动力国家重点实验室自主研究课题(2019TPL-T10)。
