摘要
能源危机致使低碳技术成为目前技术变迁所关注的核心问题。为了解释低碳技术在市场中扩散的原理和过程,选择逾渗模型进行研究架构,结合学习曲线、消费意愿异质性与从众心理以及政府补贴现象对低碳技术的扩散机理进行分析,并设计仿真模型进行实验对比分析。仿真数据输入采用我国新能源乘用汽车产业的统计数据和处理结果,仿真结果表明:初始新能源乘用车占传统乘用车的保有量比例并不能决定扩散结果,仅对过程起作用;价格对扩散的结果起到较大作用,目前价格水平较理想,应持续走平价大众路线,防止产业整体的价格过度增加;学习曲线对扩散结果的影响不大,产业层面可控因素不多,目前的学习系数较为合理;针对私人消费激励的消费补贴并不能对扩散起到决定性作用,补贴退坡现实可行。研究丰富了技术的扩散理论,证明前期研究的部分理论推测,同时拓展逾渗模型在技术创新领域的应用,为我国低碳技术的可持续发展提供有益借鉴。
Low-carbon technology is considered to be the core issue in studying technological transition because of energy crisis.This paper sets out to interpret the mechanism and process of low-carbon technology diffusing in the market.We choose percolation to build up the research frame and combine learning curve,heterogeneity of customer willingness,group conformity and government subsidy to analyze the diffusion mechanism of low-carbon technology, finally design a simulation model in order to make contrast of experiments.The input of simulation is from statistical data and calculating results of new-energy passenger vehicle industry.Results of simulation show that, initial ratio of new-energy vehicle to whole traditional vehicle market cannot decide the final result of diffusion, but only affect the process of such transition.Pricing is of great importance to diffusion, but present pricing is decent.Pricing should follow a rational and mass route and prevent over-increasing of whole price level in industry.Learning curve on the other hand has little effect on diffusion and has no controllable factors in industry level,yot present learning coefficient is quite reasonable for the market.Consumption subsidy aimed to stimulate individual consumption does not play a decisive role in diffusion,thus fall off of subsidy is practicable.This study has enriched the diffusion theory of technological innovation,proved some theoretical speculation of previous literature, and developed a new application of percolation model in technological innovation study.This paper would provide helpful reference for sustainable development of low-carbon technology in our country.
作者
袭希
侯永
赵健宇
XI Xi;HOU Yong;ZHAO Jian-yu(School of Management,Harbin University of Commerce,Harbin 150028,China;School of Business Administration.Weifang University of Science and Technology,Wcifang 262700,China;School of Economics and Management,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001,China)
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第5期46-54,共9页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71602042,71602041)
黑龙江省博士后启动基金资助项目(LBH-Q18068)
教育部人文社科青年基金资助项目(19YJC630197)
黑龙江省哲学社会科学项目(18JYD391)。
关键词
低碳技术
扩散
逾渗
智能体仿真
Low-carbon Technology
Diffusion
Percolation
Agent-based Simulation
