摘要
清洁低碳的新能源是中国调整能源结构的主攻方向,如何利用有限的补贴资金加快新能源产业的发展步伐,必须从产业链不同环节实施补贴效果差异程度进行分析,确保新能源补贴政策执行效果最优。本文在Acemoglu的偏向性技术进步框架下修正模型设定,引入碳减排目标约束,从产业链视角将目前的新能源补贴政策分为直接R&D补贴、中间生产补贴与终端消费补贴,将补贴政策与模型中厂商的R&D部门、中间产品生产部门、最终产品生产部门结合,通过数理演绎不同环节补贴政策对新能源产业的预期利润与技术进步率的影响,并在此基础上结合中国实际二氧化碳排放数据、能源类专利数和已有相关研究进行了参数校准与数值模拟分析。研究发现:(1)当前的新能源产业补贴政策可分为直接R&D补贴、中间生产补贴和终端消费补贴,在新能源产业的不同环节实施补贴政策的效果不同,给定相同补贴比例时,在中间环节实施生产补贴对新能源产业预期利润与技术进步率的激励效果最好。(2)在基础参数设置与参数值变动时,中间生产补贴均具有最好的政策效果,但具体实施效果会受新能源技术对碳减排的作用强度、两部门替代弹性、研发成功概率与机器设备产出弹性等参数变动的影响。(3)产业技术水平的提升可以打破路径依赖,避免产品同质化和产能过剩,补贴政策对新能源产业技术进步的促进作用要建立在政策实施方式变动的基础上,通过细化补贴方式、监督发放过程和追责骗补行为,改善中国新能源补贴政策的实施方式,推动持续技术进步。
Clean and low-carbon energy has become the main target in the adjustment of China’s energy structure. In order to attain optimal results from implementation of new energy subsidy,it is necessary to analyze its varying effects at different stages of the industry value chain so that the limited available subsidy funds can be more efficiently utilized to fast track the development of New Energy Industry. Based on the framework of Acemoglu’s biased technological progress,this paper modifies the model setting and introduces the target constraints of carbon emission reduction,from the perspective of Industrial chain,classifies subsidy policy into Direct R ＆ D,intermediate production subsidy and terminal consumption subsidy,combining the subsidy policy with the vendor’s R＆D department,the intermediate product manufacturing department,and the final product manufacturing department in the model. The paper also provides mathematical interpretation of the effects of subsidy on expected profit and technological progress rate at different stages of China’s new energy Industry. Furthermore,by combining China’s actual carbon emissions with energy patent data and previous studies calibration and numerical simulation analysis are performed. Results of the studies demonstrate that：（1） The existing new energy subsidies which are classified under R＆D subsidy,intermediate production subsidy and terminal consumption subsidy exhibit varying effects along the industry value chain. For a given subsidy ratio,the incentive effect on the expected profit and technological progress rate is optimal at the production stage.（2）The incentive effect is the best policy choices in the basic parameter settings and parameter values change scenarios,the outcome of implementing the subsidy is influenced by the impact strength of new energy technology on carbon emission reduction,elasticity of substitution between the two sectors,R ＆ D success probability,mechanical equipment output elasticity and the effects of changes in oth
作者
高新伟
闫昊本
GAO Xin-wei;YAN Hao-ben(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum,Qingdao Shandong 266580, Chin)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第6期30-40,共11页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"基于利益相关者博弈关系的可再生能源发电激励机制研究(批准号:71573273)
山东省自然科学基金项目"石油全产业链税费对成品油市场价格的引导机理研究--基于山东省数据"(批准号:ZR2016GM16)
关键词
新能源
产业链
补贴政策
数值模拟
new energy
industrial chain
subsidy policy
numerical simulation
