摘要
【目的】研究东北地区春玉米涝渍灾害评估方法,为气候变化背景下东北地区春玉米合理生产和管理提供科学依据。【方法】以权重湿润指数为基础,采用作物需水量代替参考作物蒸散量,构建改进权重湿润指数;运用1986—2015年东北地区春玉米生育期内涝渍灾害事件与改进权重湿润指数耦合方法、基于K-S检验的正态分布显著性检验方法和t-分布区间估计方法等,确定基于改进权重湿润指数的东北地区春玉米不同生育阶段涝渍强度分级阈值;从农田土壤相对湿度与改进权重湿润指数相关性和拟合关系检验,改进权重湿润指数、权重湿润指数评估结果与历史灾情结果一致性检验,以及典型年份涝渍灾变过程动态评估准确性检验3个方面,对改进权重湿润指数评估春玉米涝渍灾害的精度进行验证;分析东北地区春玉米不同生育阶段涝渍强度空间格局,揭示其规律特征。【结果】(1)改进权重湿润指数与不同深度的土壤相对湿度均达到极显著相关(P<0.001),除玉米快速发育期外,其他生育期内二者相关系数最大值均出现在20 cm深度土壤相对湿度;将不同生育阶段改进权重湿润指数与20 cm深度土壤相对湿度间进行Slogistic曲线拟合,决定系数(R2)最大值出现在生育中期(0.46),其后依次是生育后期(0.34)、快速发育期(0.31)和初始生长期(0.21),均方根误差(RMSE)最小值出现在生育后期(0.49),其后依次是生育中期(0.51)、初始生长期(0.52)和快速发育期(0.56),不同生育阶段拟合曲线中90%的20 cm土壤相对湿度所对应的改进权重湿润指数值最小值出现在初始生长期(0.77),其后依次是快速发育期(1.12)、生育中期(1.21)和生育后期(1.25)。(2)与随机预留的春玉米涝渍灾害事件测试样本中灾情判定结果相比,权重湿润指数评估结果的完全准确率为26.7%,部分准确率为66.7%;改进权重湿润指数评估结果的完全准确�
【Objective】The aim of this study investigated the evaluation methods of spring maize waterlogging disasters in Northeast China,so as to provide a scientific basis for the rational production and management of spring maize in Northeast China under the background of climate change.【Method】Based on the Weight Moist Index(WMI),the crop water demand,instead of the reference crop evapotranspiration,was used to construct an Improved Weight Moist Index(IWMI).The coupling method of waterlogging disaster events and IWMI during the growth period of spring maize in Northeast China from 1986 to 2015,the normal distribution significance test method based on K-S test,and the estimation method of t-distribution interval were used to determine the thresholds for waterlogging intensity grading of different growth stages in spring maize.The correlation and fitting relationship of soil relative humidity and IWMI,the consistency of the evaluation results on IWMI and WMI and waterlogging disaster statistics results,and the accuracy of the assessment on dynamic process of waterlogging disasters in typical years were analyzed to evaluate the IWMI precision.The spatial pattern of waterlogging at different growth stages of spring maize in Northeast China was analyzed,and then its regular characteristics were revealed.【Result】(1)IWMI was significantly correlated with soil relative humidity at different depths(P<0.001).Except for the rapidly developmental period of maize,in the other stages,the maximum correlation coefficient of both appeared at 20 cm depth.Through fitting the IWMI and the soil relative humidity at 20 cm depth based on a Slogistic model,it was found that the maximum coefficient of determination(R2)appeared in the middle period(0.46),followed by the end period(0.34),the rapidly developmental period(0.31)and the initial growth period(0.21).The minimum root mean square error(RMSE)appeared in the end period(0.49),followed by the middle period(0.51),the initial growth period(0.52),and the rapidly developmental period
作者
刘聪
武永峰
刘平辉
梁立江
LIU Cong;WU YongFeng;LIU PingHui;LIANG LiJiang(College of Earth Sciences,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330000;Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environment,Ministry of Agriculture,Beijing 100081)
出处
《中国农业科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第11期2182-2194,共13页
Scientia Agricultura Sinica
基金
“十三五”国家重点研发计划子课题(2017YFD0300402-2)。
关键词
东北地区
春玉米
改进权重湿润指数
涝渍强度等级
评估
Northeast China
spring maize
improved weight moist index
waterlogging intensity grade
evaluation
