摘要
欧美逆全球化思潮暗流涌动,但中国承诺进一步扩大对外开放。本文利用KOF世界经济、贸易和金融全球化指数,以及中国A股上市公司数据,从微观层面检验了逆全球化对中国宏观经济的短期冲击和长期影响。研究结果表明,外部逆全球化冲击显著降低了中国企业投资率和知识产出水平。在短期,导致经济下行;在长期,抑制经济增长。其短期影响渠道为国际贸易渠道和融资约束渠道,长期影响渠道为创新抑制渠道。进一步研究表明,通过创新驱动促进价值链升级,可以缓解外部逆全球化冲击对企业投资及宏观经济的负面影响。利用GMM方法弱化了内生性之后,以上结论依然成立。政策启示认为,中国应以"一带一路"倡议为突破,进一步扩大开放。面对外部逆全球化的持续冲击,中国需要备足政策工具箱。
While China promises to continue its opening-up efforts, the developed countries are undergoing the spread of global populism and promoting de-globalization. The purpose of this article is to empirically study the micro evidences of de-globalization’s impacts on China’s economic growth, explore the short term and long-term mechanisms and briefly comment on China’s commitment to further opening-up efforts.Based on a new classical model with financial frictions, this article puts forward a micro econometrics model. The shortterm and long-term impacts of external de-globalization on China’s economy are empirically examined by using the KOF world economic, trade and financial globalization index as well as the financial data of China’s A-share listed companies.In order to test the long-term channel, this article constructs a dynamic output model of enterprise knowledge and calculates the impacts of de-globalization on firms’ R&D and innovations. In order to test the short-term channel, this article introduces dependence on foreign trade and sensitivity of investment-cash flow into the previous econometric model.The results show that de-globalization significantly reduces the investments and knowledge innovations of Chinese enterprises, thus has a negative impact on the economy. The long-term and short-term mechanisms are innovation-impeding channel and international trade channel respectively. Further research shows that the upgrading of global value chain participation stemming from innovations can alleviate the negative impacts of de-globalization.China’s commitment to further opening-up manifests the courage and responsibility of a big country, while preparing in advance and considering policy options are necessary and urgent. This article raises three policy implications and suggestions.The first one is to improve the income distribution system and raise family income. The second one is to advocate innovations and upgrade global value chain participation. Finally, we need to vigorously protect intel
作者
周先平
向古月
皮永娟
Zhou Xianping;Xiang Guyue;Pi Yongjuan(School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law)
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第4期23-32,共10页
Studies of International Finance
关键词
逆全球化
企业投资
经济增长
短期冲击
长期影响
De-Globalization
Enterprise Investment
Economic Growth
Short-Term Shock
Long-Term Impact
