摘要
本文从全球化与逆全球化的矛盾运动视角来分析当前的逆全球化的形成及走势,从历史回顾到对当前的逆全球化以及中美经贸摩擦问题展开系统研究,分析历史上中国曾经主导的全球化与欧洲主导的全球化的特点、起源、发展和终止的原因,再到WTO框架下的全球化对世界经济发展的贡献,产生的复杂影响及面临的挑战。文中分析了美欧逆全球化动向的成因及二者的不同性质和表现,并认为美国是当今世界逆全球化的主要力量。但是,由于美国资本市场的涨落、经济周期的作用以及贸易战对美国经济都会产生不同的负面影响,美国发起的贸易战难以持久,逆全球化的力量将会因综合因素的作用慢慢衰减,世界将回到全球化的轨道。并且,从美国这个移民国家的历史文化渊源来看,它有着扩大对外交往,趋向全球化的"基因";美国从20世纪上半叶成为世界经济和工业强国后长期实行低关税政策,而低关税对它利大于弊,因此本次对主要贸易伙伴实行的高关税政策也很难持久,最终还是要回到低关税状态。文章也分析了逆全球化对中国的影响以及中国的应对策略。
This paper analyzes the formation and trend of anti-globalization from the perspective of contradiction movement of globalization and anti-globalization,makes systematic research on the problem of anti-globalization from historical review to the current economic friction between China and the US,studies the causes of origin,development and termination of Chinese-dominated globalization and European-dominated globalization in the history to the globalization under the WTO frames which has made the contribution to world economic development,produced complex impacts and faced challenges.The paper also analyzes the causes and differences of anti-globalization between America and Europe and holds that America is the main force of anti-globalization.Nevertheless,because of the volatility of capital markets,economic cycle and the negative impact of the trade war on the United States economy,the trade war is not sustainable and the forces of anti-globalization will decay so that the world will return to globalization.In addition,from the historical and cultural roots of this immigrant country,it has a 'gene' for foreign interaction and globalization.The US has a long-standing low tariff policy and this policy has more good than harm,so this high tariff policy will not last and it will eventually back to low tariffs.Lastly,we analyze the impact of the anti-globalization on China and China’s coping tactics.
作者
杨万东
张蓓
方行明
YANG Wan-dong;ZHANG Bei;FANG Xing-ming(School of Economics,Southwest university of Finance and Economics 611130;School of Economics,Renmin University of China 100872)
出处
《上海经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期99-112,共14页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
关键词
全球化
逆全球化
WTO
经贸摩擦
金融危机
Globalization
Anti-globalization
WTO
Economic and Trade Friction
Financial Crisis
