摘要
人口年龄结构是影响居民消费的重要因素,其动态变化引起的居民消费变化受到学界的广泛关注。运用2002—2016年我国东部10个省份的面板数据,构建双向固定效应模型,实证研究人口年龄结构变动对居民消费的影响。研究发现:人口结构变动对我国东部省份城镇居民消费结构产生差异化的显著影响。少儿抚养比和老年抚养比对城镇居民消费类别的作用方向和大小均存在不同。少儿抚养比增大导致城镇居民的住房成本明显上升,消费支出相应明显加大;老年抚养比对城镇居民的住房和医疗保健消费存在极大的影响,然而对衣食等基础性消费的影响则具有一定刚性。基于以上结论,提出进一步完善住房保障体系、加大对医疗和养老产业的扶持力度、扩大文化教育投入等对策建议。
The population age structure is an important factor that affects residents'consumption,and its dynamic changes result in residents'consumption changes,which has drawn the attention of the academic circle.With the panel data of 10 provinces in eastern China from 2002 to 2016,by constructing a bidirectional fixed effect model,the influences of population age structure changes on residents'consumption are empirically studied.It is found that first,the changes of population structure produce significant differentiated impacts on the consumption structure of urban residents in provinces in eastern China.There exist differences in effect directions and sizes of the children dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio on urban residents'consumption types.The increase of the children dependency ratio results in a significant rise in the housing costs of urban residents and the corresponding rise in consumption expenditure;the elderly dependency ratio greatly impacts the housing and medical care consumption of urban residents,while its impacts on the basic consumption of food and clothing is rigid.Accordingly,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to further improve the housing security system,strengthen the medical and pension support and increase the investment in culture and education.
出处
《常州大学学报（社会科学版）》
2020年第2期53-59,共7页
Journal of Changzhou University:Social Science Edition
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金“城市休闲化的演变特征及协调发展机制研究”(17YJC630088)
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目“江苏经济高质量发展的测度、驱动因素及对策研究”(2019SJZDA068)。
关键词
人口年龄结构
少儿抚养比
老年抚养比
消费结构
population age structure
children dependency ratio
elderly dependency ratio
consumption structure
