摘要
2020年中国将向全世界宣告消除了贫困,并进行减贫战略的转型,届时很可能从使用绝对贫困线改为采用相对贫困标准。在这一历史性时刻,有必要回顾中国的减贫历程,并对未来新的减贫战役进行展望。特别地,有必要探讨这样的转型意味着什么?又会带来哪些挑战?中国是否应该进行这样的转型?基于Shorrocks and Wan(2009)的方法,本文将国家统计局发布的收入分组数据“还原”为个体观察值,在不同的贫困线或贫困标准下,估算改革开放后中国及其各省份的绝对贫困和相对贫困发生率,并简单评估中国的减贫成就。特别地,本文通过比较绝对贫困发生率和相对贫困发生率,试图说明中国采用相对贫困标准为时过早,同时还将讨论转型使用相对贫困标准可能带来的一系列难以应对的挑战,提出相关政策建议。
China will soon declare eradication of poverty under the current official poverty line of 2300 RMB(2010 prices)per person per year.The government is planning to target relative poverty instead of absolute poverty.At this critical juncture,it is important to review China’s experience in poverty reduction and examine the planned transition to the use of relative poverty line.Employing the technique of Shorrocks and Wan(2009),this paper recovers individual income observations from grouped data which are available from statistical yearbooks.The recovered data are then used to estimate both absolute and relative poverty under alternative poverty lines for China as a whole and for individual provinces.The estimates enables calculation of poverty gaps.The analytical results indicate that absolute poverty has declined dramatically but relative poverty has been rising in post-reform China.In particular,the poverty gap analyses demonstrate that China faces little difficulties in eliminating absolute poverty under the official or World Bank poverty lines but it is pre-mature to adopt relative poverty lines,given the current government budget and status of income distribution.The paper puts forward a series of policy suggestions.
作者
汪晨
万广华
吴万宗
WANG Chen;WAN Guang-hua;WU Wan-zong(Institute of Finance and Economics,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;Institute of World Economy,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;School of Economics,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第1期5-23,共19页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目“新时期扶贫开发理论与政策研究”（批准号71833003）
国家自然科学基金青年项目“基于福利函数的贫困识别、度量和应用研究”（批准号71703088）
国家自然科学基金青年项目“开放经济视角下中国缩小贫富差距的竞争机制研究：理论与实证”（批准号71903130）
关键词
贫困线(标准)
转移支付
绝对贫困
相对贫困
poverty lines(standard)
government transfer
absolute poverty
relative poverty
