摘要
现有洪水模拟方法仅考虑了洪峰、洪量及洪水历时三者间的相关性,并未考虑洪水特征量对于洪水过程线形状的影响。鉴于此,本文提出一种考虑峰型及其出现频率的洪水随机模拟方法,在洪峰、洪量、洪水历时的基础上,引入峰型系数及峰现时间,通过Copula函数构建上述特征量的联合分布函数并进行特征量随机模拟,通过贴近度计算得到与随机模拟的特征量最接近的代表性无量纲洪水过程线类型,进而将两者融合得到完整洪水过程线,并应用于防洪调度仿真计算。大隆水库的实例计算结果表明,本文洪水模拟方法全面考虑了影响洪水过程的诸多因子,模拟结果中各峰型出现频率接近天然洪水,防洪风险率与实际相差不大,对于水库调度方案制订及风险分析具有重要意义。
Previous flood simulation methods only consider correlations among flood peak,volume and duration,but neglect the influence of flood characteristics on the shape of flood hydrograph.This paper describes a stochastic flood simulation method considering the shape of flood peak and its frequency by introducing peak shape coefficient and peak time.The copula function is used to construct a joint distribution function of these variables and simulates them though stochastic simulation.By calculating closeness degree,we can obtain the representative types of dimensionless flood hydrographs that are the closest to the stochastic simulations,and then achieve a complete flood hydrograph through combining the two functions and apply it to numerical simulations for flood control and dispatching.Case studies of the Dalong reservoir show that our method comprehensively considers the major factors that affect flood process.And the frequency of each simulated peak type is close to that of the measured flood,and the calculated risk rate of flood control is not much different from its real value.Thus the method is useful for formulation of reservoir dispatching schemes and risk analysis.
作者
阎晓冉
王丽萍
张验科
俞洪杰
李宁宁
YAN Xiaoran;WANG Liping;ZHANG Yanke;YU Hongjie;LI Ningning(Renewable Energy School,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206;Zhejiang Design Institute of Water Conservancy&Hydro-electric Power,Hangzhou 310002)
出处
《水力发电学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第12期61-72,共12页
Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51709105)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助(2019MS031)
浙江省水利厅科技计划项目(RC1904)
关键词
峰型系数
峰现时间
洪水过程线
随机模拟
风险分析
peak shape coefficient
peak time
flood hydrograph
stochastic simulation
risk analysis
