摘要
为更有效地预防化工事故,选用科学的方法探究事故原因十分必要。基于FTA和24Model理论,结合各自特点构建了FTA-24Model事故原因分析框架,通过设定事故原因5步分析法,结合Why-Because方法制定出完整的事故原因逻辑分析程序,并以某典型化工事故为案例进行了实证研究,共识别出35项直接致因因素、17项间接致因因素、22项组织层面深层次致因因素,确定了173条关联路径并应用Gephi 0.9.2进行可视化展示,突出显示了安全重要程度(SC 2)、工艺过程规程及设备管理制度和要求(SMS 6)、遵法守规意识(HB 1)、变更管理方式(UA X 11)等因素的重要性。与案例事故报告信息相比,FTA-24Model框架分析方法可系统化地演绎事故原因间的逻辑关系,完整地展现出事故致因链条及其演变历程,使分析结果更加全面、具体,并最大程度地削弱了主观因素的影响。该框架分析方法可有效应用于化工事故原因的调查,其分析结果可为化工企业制定事故预防策略提供参考。
In order to prevent chemical accidents more effectively,it is necessary to select scientific methods to explore the accident causes.This paper constructs a framework of FTA-24Model accident cause analysis on the theory and characteristics of FTA and 24Model.By setting out a five-step analysis method and combined with Why-Because method,the paper develops a full logical analysis process for accident causes.Taking a typical chemical accident as an example,the paper identifies a total of 34 direct and 17 indirect cause factors,22 organizational level factors and 173 related paths and highlight the importance of such factors as safety importance(SC 2),equipment management system and requirements(SMS 6),compliance awareness(HB 1)and change managementprocess(UA X 11).Compared with the accident report,the FTA-24Model framework analytical method can systematically deduce the logical relationship between the accident causes,and show the chain and evolution.Additionally,it makes the analysis results more comprehensive and concrete,as well as weakens the constraints of subjective factors maximally.The FTA-24Model framework analytical method can be effectively applied to the chemical accident investigation,and the results can provide reference for the formulation of prevention strategies.
作者
付净
聂方超
刘虹
佟林全
FU Jing;NIE Fangchao;LIU Hong;TONG Linquan(College of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Jilin Institute of Chemical Technology,Jilin 132022,China;College of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;National Center of Occupational Safety and Health,National Health Commission,Beijing 102308,China)
出处
《安全与环境工程》
CAS
北大核心
2019年第6期159-165,共7页
Safety and Environmental Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(51534008)
吉林市科技发展计划项目(201831715)
