摘要
美联储加息、中美贸易战、我国央行降准等一系列国内国外的重要事件对我国人民币汇率产生了很大的影响,而汇率变动对我国物价水平又会产生什么样的影响?基于现阶段我国国内国外的情形,引入相关变量构建VAR模型,通过脉冲效应函数分析和方差分解进行实证研究,研究人民币汇率变动对我国物价水平的传递效应。结论表明:人民币汇率变动对我国物价水平的传递效应是不完全的、微弱的、有时滞的;通过人民币汇率的变动控制通货膨胀、稳定物价不是有效的调控手段;为稳定人民币汇率付出的成本是巨大的。所以,我国央行可以考虑加快人民币汇率自由化就进程。
A series of important domestic and foreign events,such as the Federal Reserve interest rate hike,Sino-US trade war and the reduction of the central bank’s benchmark,have a great impact on China’s RMB exchange rate. What impact does the exchange rate change have on China’s price level? Based on the current situation in China and abroad,VAR model is constructed by introducing relevant variables. Empirical research is carried out through impulse effect function analysis and variance decomposition to study the transfer effect of RMB exchange rate changes on China’s price level. The conclusion shows that the transfer effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China’s price level is incomplete,weak and time-lagged;controlling inflation and stabilizing prices through RMB exchange rate fluctuation is not an effective means of regulation and control;the cost of stabilizing RMB exchange rate is huge. Therefore,the Central Bank of China can consider speeding up the process of RMB exchange rate liberalization.
作者
宋华
褚姚
SONG Hua;CHU Yao(Anhui University,Hefei 230601,China)
出处
《忻州师范学院学报》
2019年第5期99-105,共7页
Journal of Xinzhou Teachers University
基金
国家社科基金项目(15Bjy117)
