摘要
随着电网的日益发展及电力负荷压力的不断增大,准确评估高压直流输电系统可靠性对电力系统安全稳定运行具有重大意义。本文将重要抽样法与序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法相结合,提出了一种应用于高压直流输电系统可靠性评估的序贯重要抽样法。该方法结合序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法与重要抽样法的优点,既充分利用了系统原始参数,得到系统真实运行的时序信息,又有效地降低了抽样方差,加快了收敛速度。应用该方法对典型单、双十二脉高压直流输电系统进行了可靠性评估,并与采用传统序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法、序贯交叉熵法的评估结果进行对比。结果表明:序贯重要抽样法在确保计算精度的基础上显著缩短了仿真时间,具有较高的计算效率。
Along with the increasing development and the increasing pressure of electric power load,the accurate evaluation of HVDC transmission system reliability is of great importance to the secure and stable operation of power system.In this paper,a sequential importance sampling method for the reliability evaluation of HVDC transmission system is proposed by combination of the importance sampling method with the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method.This method,which combines both advantages of the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method and the importance sampling method,not only makes full use of the original data to obtain the real operation timing information of the system,but also effectively reduces the sampling variances and accelerates the convergence speed.The method is applied to evaluate the reliabilities of typical single 12-pulse and double 12-pulse HVDC transmission systems,and the evaluation results are compared with that of the classical sequential Monte Carlo simulation method and that of the sequential cross entropy method.The results show that the sequential sampling method can greatly shorten the simulation time and has higher computational efficiency,while the numerical accuracy is guaranteed.
作者
华回春
章煜
HUA Huichun;ZHANG Yu(State Key Lab of Alternate Electric Power System with Renewable Energy Sources(North China Electric Power University),Hebei Baoding 071003,China)
出处
《广西电力》
2019年第5期13-18,共6页
Guangxi Electric Power
关键词
高压直流输电系统
可靠性评估
序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法
重要抽样法
HVDC transmission system
reliability evaluation
sequential Monte Carlo simulation method
importance sampling
