摘要
将拉丁超立方抽样方法与重要抽样方法相结合,提出了一种应用于电力系统可靠性评估的改进拉丁超立方抽样方法。该方法首先通过重要抽样改变原系统样本空间的概率分布,然后对新概率分布进行拉丁超立方抽样,降低了抽样方差,避免了系统正常状态的大量重复抽样。应用该方法对IEEE-RTS系统与IEEE-RTS修改系统进行可靠性评估,并与常规非序贯蒙特卡洛抽样方法和传统拉丁超立方抽样方法的结果进行了比较。比较结果验证了所提出的方法在保证一定计算精度的条件下,可降低抽样方差,提高抽样效率,并且可适用于高可靠性的系统可靠性评估。
An improved Latin hypercube sampling method for power system reliability evaluation is proposed by combining Latin hypercube sampling method with the importance sampling method.In this method,the probabilistic distribution of current sample space of the system is changed by the importance sampling method,and then samples follow the new probability distribution are generated by Latin hypercube sampling.Thus the sampling variance is reduced and massive repeated samples in normal system state are avoided.The proposed method is applied to the reliability evaluation of the power generation section in an IEEE-RTS and modified IEEE-RTS test system.Comparison with the conventional non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation algorithm and the Latin hypercube sampling method shows that the sampling variance is reduced and the sampling efficiency improved with the proposed method with definite calculating accuracy guaranteed,which is suitable for the reliability evaluation of high reliability systems.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第4期52-57,共6页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家国际科技合作与交流专项资助项目(2013DFA11040)~~
关键词
电力系统
可靠性评估
蒙特卡洛模拟
重要抽样
拉丁超立方抽样
power systems
reliability evaluation
Monte Carlo simulation
importance sampling
Latin hypercube sampling
