摘要
基于1985-2016年省级面板数据,在分析过去30多年我国农村贫困化演变基础上,构建了经济增长、公共投资和扶贫政策等因素影响减贫成效的计量经济模型,测度了经济增长、公共投资和政策演变的减贫效应。结果表明:经济增长曾在减轻农村贫困中发挥重大作用,其中农业生产总值增长显著降低了贫困发生率,但随着社会发展,经济增长的减贫效应边际递减;在扶贫开发的新阶段,农村地区公共投资更能带动贫困人口脱贫,同时精准扶贫和社会保障政策也有助于降低贫困发生率,因而未来一段时期内应进一步加大农村基础设施和公共服务投资。本研究结果有助于深化贫困发生本质的科学认知,为我国2020年后新一轮减贫政策的制定和乡村振兴战略的顺利推进提供决策支持。
By using the provincial scale panel data from 1985 to 2016, this paper establishes an econometric model to analyze the evolution of the poverty population and the incidence of poverty in China’s rural areas, to measure the poverty reduction effect of economic growth, public investment and policy evolution. The results show that economic growth has played a major role in poverty alleviation in rural areas. The growth of agricultural production has a significant impact on the reduction of poverty incidence. However, with the development of society, the poverty reduction effect of economic growth presents a law of diminishing marginal effect. In the new stage of poverty alleviation and development, public investment in rural areas can drive the poor out of poverty. At the same time, supplementing targeted poverty alleviation and social security policies will also help reduce the incidence of poverty. Therefore, rural infrastructure needs to be increased in the near future. Public service investment is also an important means of alleviating rural poverty. The findings of this paper can provide decision support for a new round of poverty reduction policies and the smooth development of the rural reform strategy after 2020.
作者
周扬
童春阳
ZHOU Yang;TONG Chun-yang(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;Center for Assessment and Research on Targeted Poverty Alleviation,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《经济经纬》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第6期32-39,共8页
Economic Survey
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41871183,41601172)
中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2016M591105)
中国科学院科技扶贫项目(fp-2018-4)
河南省2019年科技发展计划项目(192400410186)
关键词
贫困发生率
经济增长
公共投资
减贫效应
空间计量
Poverty Alleviation
Economic Growth
Public Investment
Factors
Spatial Econometrics
