摘要
基于系统论与协同学理论,构建新型城镇化与产业结构演变的综合评价指标体系,采用熵权法、层次分析法和主成分分析法对评价指标进行组合赋权,引入新型城镇化与产业结构演变协调发展度水平计算模型,对湖南省2000-2017年新型城镇化与产业结构演变协调情况进行实证。结果显示:在时间维度上协调性不同向,新型城镇化综合发展水平明显较高,而产业结构演变综合发展水平相对滞后,导致两者发展轨迹出现明显逆向演变现象;在速度维度上协调性不同步,两系统增长速度之间相关性不够强,在演变速度上没有实现协同发展;在结构功能上互动性不够强,两系统发展比较缓慢,整体功能尚未得到充分发挥,相互作用不明显,协调发展度偏低;在演变趋势上可持续性不明显,两者协调发展呈现较好势头,协调发展度不断提高,但其协调状态演变趋势可持续性不明显;各市协调发展存在不均衡性,呈现从东向西递减态势。
Based on the theory of system and synergy,this study constructs a new evaluation index system for the coordinated development of urbanization and industrial structure evolution,and comprehensively applies entropy weight method,analytic hierarchy process,and principal component analysis method to empower indicators and introduce new urbanization and industrial structure. The evolution and coordination development evaluation model are used to demonstrate the coordination of new urbanization and industrial structure evolution in Hunan Province from 2000 to 2017. The empirical analysis results show that:The coordination between the two is different in the time dimension. The new urbanization and industrial structure development in Hunan Province showed an upward trend. The former has been in a stable growth trend,with a substantial increase,and the development level is significantly higher than the latter. Its contribution and coordination in the subsystem are higher than those of the population development,residents’ living,and urban and rural coordination subsystems. However,the evolution of industrial structure shows a trend of large fluctuations,the growth rate is relatively low,and the development level is relatively lagging. The contribution and coordination of the output value subsystem in the subsystem are the highest,the employment structure development is lagging,and the proportion of non-agricultural industries is relatively low,and the proportion of employment in the secondary and tertiary industries is not coordinated. The development level difference between new urbanization and industrial structure is getting bigger and bigger,which leads to the apparent deviation of their development trajectory.The coordination between the two is not synchronized in the speed dimension. The coordinated development of new urbanization and industrial structure evolution in Hunan Province has shown good momentum. The degree of coordination and coordinated development has been continuously improved. However,the correlat
作者
魏敏
胡振华
Wei Min;Hu Zhenhua(Business School,Central South University,Changsha 410083,Hunan,China;Economic Management School,Changsha Normal University,Changsha 410100,Hunan,China)
出处
《科研管理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第11期67-84,共18页
Science Research Management
关键词
新型城镇化
产业结构演变
协调度
协调发展度
new urbanization
industrial structure evolution
coordination degree
coordinated development degree
