摘要
自“一带一路”倡议提出以来,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)的合作进程逐渐加深,经济贸易发展取得了一系列成果,中国在全球贸易网络中的地位和模式也呈现出了一系列新的特点。为了进一步探究这些新特征、新变化对中国对外开放格局的影响,促进全方位、多层次、复合型全球贸易互联互通网络的构建,实现各国合作共赢、共同发展,本文引入社会网络的分析方法对全球贸易网络进行刻画分析发现:(1)当前全球贸易网络中存在着大量复杂的中间品及最终品贸易关系,且两者显示出非对称的结构特点。(2)中国在中间品及最终品贸易网络中均扮演着重要角色,形成了“8字”双循环的全球贸易模式。中国与大量上环流国家存在密切的中间品贸易往来并主要以中间品出口方的角色活跃于上环流贸易圈中;在下环流国家中,中国则主要出口最终品,并与下环流国家形成了显著的贸易互补关系。(3)从细分产业来看,中国的“8”字双环流贸易模式主要依赖于第二产业。在第一产业及第三产业中并未表现出明显的“8”字双环流贸易模式,其贸易对象以发达国家为主。
Since the inception of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),the cooperation between China and countries along the BRI has gradually deepened and achieved a series of economic and trade developments.The position of China in the global trade network presents a series of new features.This paper introduced the analytical method of social networks to further explore the structural characteristics of China's import and export trade and China's role in the global trade network,to promote the development of the global trade interconnection network and to achieve the win-win cooperation goal.Based on the input and output data of 188 countries in 2015,through network density indicators and CONCOR methods,we find that:(1)There is a large number of complex intermediates and final product trade relations between countries.Intermediates and final product trade networks show an asymmetric structural feature.The intermediate product trade network has relatively weak asymmetric characteristics,while the final product trade network has a strong asymmetric feature.(2)China plays an important role in the trade network,forming an“8 double-cycle”trade model.China has a large number of intermediate trades with the upper circulation countries,playing the role of the exporter of intermediate goods.Meanwhile,China sells final product to the lower circulation countries,forming a significant trade complementarity with the lower circulation countries.(3)“8 double-cycle”trade model depends on the secondary industry.In the primary industry and the tertiary industry,there is no obvious“8 double-cycle”trade model,and China's trade targets are main developed countries.
作者
张辉
李宁静
ZHANG Hui;LI Ningjing
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第10期17-36,共20页
Journal of International Trade
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“建设现代化经济体系的路径与策略研究”(18JZD029)
关键词
社会网络
对外贸易
产业结构
经济枢纽
Social Network
Foreign Trade
Industrial Structure
Economic Hub
